This is always one of the most exciting (and long) week’s of the sports betting season as March Madness attracts no shortage of action. With all the excitement and publicity the tournament brings, office pools pop up everywhere and recreational bettors flood the market with action. With all that money in play and shifting lines around, there can be some very profitable spots in college basketball betting over the next few weeks, so let’s go over a few general things I always keep in mind at this time of year.

NCAA March Madness Strategies

1: Don’t fall in love with your bracket or avoid them all together.

Bracket pools are always fun and exciting to get involved with and you can win some decent paydays in pools with a successful bracket. But the majority of the time brackets are busted early and often with losses piling up everywhere. You’ve probably (or will) spend quite a bit of time going through your picks for the tournament and what not, which is fine, but don’t fall in love with those selections as the tournament goes on – even if you’ve nearly gone perfect up till the later rounds.

I say that because the point spread is always the great equalizer in sports betting and you’ll always tend to have a bias when handicapping later games based on your bracket selections. Handicapping games takes a lot of work to find winners and if you are already attacking them with a bias towards your bracket selections you are doing yourself a disservice. You aren’t taking in all of the information as an objective viewer and when you do back those teams you picked in your bracket and they lose, it hurts twice as much because you’ve hurt your bracket and lost a wager. That’s why avoiding them all together isn’t a bad idea or fill them out and ignore them until the final game of each Sunday is complete. That way you aren’t clouding up your vision on the lines and who to take ATS.

2: Use the seedings as a guideline only.

Everyone knows upsets happen all the time in this tournament, hence the name “March Madness.” The rankings are only there for the selection committee to set up the tournament but a lot of the time they are not useful at all in terms of handicapping. Everyone knows about the crazy run of at least one #12 team beating a #5 each year, so use the spreads as a basic guiding tool more often than not. You are going to see a few lower ranked teams favored in the 1st and 2nd rounds and that’s fine. The odds makers tend to have a better handle on things than the mainstream media. For example if #10 Ohio State (-3.5) beats #7 VCU on Thursday night and ESPN and other media outlets are reporting on the ‘upset’ just ignore those statements and move on. In fact, just like in the regular season, lower ranked favorites in the tournament are typically a strong play as a general rule.

3: Try to stay away from backing the #1 seeds in their first game

No #16 seed has ever upset a #1 team, but they’ve covered the spread plenty of times. You know the #1 team is almost a certainty to move on, but when you are laying -20+ points with them you are just asking to sweat out a final possession or two. Blowouts happen and #1 are worth a look when those #16 teams are seeing plenty of love from the recreational bettors, but when you’ve got big spreads like that, chances are the #1 team takes their foot off the gas in the final 5 minutes or so. Remember, they’ve got another game in 48 hours that will be much tougher, so winning and advancing (by any margin) is their #1 priority. A 24-point lead for a -22 favorite with a few minutes to go can easily turn into an 18-point victory, so don’t be afraid to shy away from these games early on.

4: Don’t be afraid to make in-play of 2nd half wagers. 

You can find a lot of value with these types of bets, especially when you are watching the game and have a strong idea of how the game is going.  If a spread you like moves on you before the game, it does no harm to your bankroll to simply wait for an in-play opportunity to take them at a better number. This applies to the 2nd half as well. Sometimes teams – usually the higher ranked ones – get off to really slow starts with all the pressure that the tournament puts on them in games they are expected to win (think 3,4,5,6 seeds) and they are forced to dig deep and scratch out a win late. Rather than taking those teams at an inflated -7 number before the game, there’s a good chance you can get them in the -3-4 range after those slow starts. Comebacks happen and teams shooting percentages always tend to work there way back to the average (ie after a bad shooting half expect them to shoot much better in 2nd and vice versa), so making plays during the game is something that should always be on your radar.

5: Rebounding, Rebounding, Rebounding

In my opinion, this is the best stat (rebounding margin) to use when breaking down a game in this tournament because there is nothing better than getting second chance opportunities (or stopping the opponent from getting them) in this tournament. Rebounding numbers always go a long way in predicting success in this tournament, with every team getting accustomed to new sightlines, rims and settings on these neutral floors. If a team can dominate on the glass, they are more likely to score easy buckets inside with that advantage on post-ups, tip ins etc. They will also be good at keeping their opponents off the boards for their own 2nd chance shots, giving your team a better chance of covering the spread.

6: Don’t forget about the NIT, CIT, and CBI

The NCAA tournament isn’t the only game in town right now and with so much attention on that tournament, betting lines are always as sharp as they come. But there are three other college basketball tournaments that take place over the next few weeks and often come with some softer lines as there just isn’t as much focus on them. Teams get to play on their home floors and motivation is a huge factor in some of these spots (especially the NIT).

For example, the high seeds in the NIT tournament are always the teams that just missed out on making the NCAA tournament. More often than not these teams are not happy to be relegated to where they are and will just be going through the motions against a program that is excited to be in the NIT after over-performing this year. Spots like that are invaluable and you can find similar type scenarios during the entirety of these tournaments.

7: Don’t overextend yourself by betting on every game. 

March Madness is loaded with games going off all day for the first few days and those other tournaments I just mentioned usually take place on the off days. That means there are a ton of games to go through and wager on and there is no need to get down on every single one.

I would suggest that when you are breaking down the NCAA tournament, try to go by time slots first and make notes. The games are always staggered, but there are typically four early games to go through, four afternoon games, four evening, and four late night games – at least on the first two days. Handicap your games by those sessions and make notes as you go. Find a play or two that you want to get down on pregame and have notes there that suggest ideas if certain situations come up that coincide with leans and thoughts you had on those games too.

I find that breaking down the heavy days of action into little four-game sessions like this always helps. When you are keeping your money management rules in order too, no one loss or bad session will hurt your bankroll or enjoyment of betting on this tournament dramatically.