I lost badly with last night’s selection on the under in the Colts/Texans as I’m beginning to wonder if we will every see any defense this year on the short week Thursday night games. Recreational bettors continue to cash with prime time games sailing well over the posted totals, but I’m still confident we will see a swing towards the ‘unders’ in the future, I’m just not sure when. Tonight there are three CFB games on the card along with one NHL contest and the start of the ALCS in MLB, so let’s get right to today’s free play.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 47-43 (+$2817)

MLB Playoffs : 4-1 (+$970)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 10-11 ATS (-$341) 

NFL YTD: 7-9 ATS (-$528)

NHL YTD: 0-0 

NCAAF Play

UNLV +10 (bought 0.5) (-120) $360 to win $300

Fresno and UNLV come into this contest playing very different football at the moment as the Bulldogs have won three straight (all by double digits) while UNLV has lost four in a row (all by double digits). Going on that run alone it’s no surprise to see Fresno getting most of the love from bettors tonight as they are simply the better team playing better football right now. However, I’m going against the grain here with this play as I expect UNLV to put up a fight now that they don’t have to deal with QB Derek Carr anymore in this game.

Carr’s replacement Brian Burrell has started to play much better for Fresno, but he’s still not a very accurate passer and relies to much on his running ability to move the chains. UNLV’s defense isn’t great by any means, but they’ll load the box to force Burrell to beat them with his arm and I’m not sure he’ll be able to do it.

UNLV is also playing it’s first home game in nearly a month after three straight on the road where they got handled rather easily. For a young, underdog team like the Runnin’ Rebels, being at home is always a plus, especially when you’ll have a larger than normal audience watching your game given it’s a weekday contest. In fact, UNLV is 9-1-1 ATS the last 11 times they’ve played on a weekday and 4-1 ATS in their last five Mountain West games.

I have no problem taking ‘ugly’ dogs if the spot appears to be good for them as I think UNLV will collect the cash for us tonight.