Unlike my preview of the Seminoles/Ducks game, I do have a wager on this playoff game before it kicks off. We’ve got two historic programs meeting up with two head coaches who are very familiar with one another and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Current Line at Pinnacle Sports: Ohio State (+9) vs. Alabama (-9); Total set at 58.5

Urban Meyer and Nick Saban are no strangers to one another from Meyer’s SEC days when Florida and Alabama often met in the SEC Championship game with the winner going on to win it all. Although the program and conference may be different for Meyer, the talented roster he has remains the same. He is starting a QB who was 3rd on the depth chart coming into the year and making his second career CFB start (Cardale Jones) which is a bit concerning, but the way Jones played in dominating Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game is a good sign for Buckeyes fans.

Yet, the one advantage Saban and Alabama have here that Wisconsin did not (aside from the month to prepare) is they’ve actually got game film on Jones and have a better idea of what to expect. Ohio State ran the ball very well in that 59-0 win and Meyer used that rushing success to open up the passing game for Jones. The problem this time around for Ohio State is that ‘Bama knows how to stop the run and will not allow RB Ezekiel Elliot to run all over them and take control of the game. Alabama only allows 88 rushing yards per game and you know Saban and DC Kirby Smart will stack the box to limit the running game and force young Cardale Jones to beat them with his arm. Alabama wants to put the ball in Jones’ hand and should have success in doing so.

Ohio State understands that fact and will be looking to take the pressure of their QB as much as they can. That’s how they dominated Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship and Meyer will be looking to his defense to lead the way once again. The Buckeyes do not want to see this game turn into a shootout because of the pressure Jones will face to score on every possession in that scenario, so look for them to try and shorten the game and play stifling defense.

Ohio State is 1-4 O/U in their last five Bowl games and although they were an ‘over’ bettor’s dream this year with an 11-2 O/U record, both of those ‘unders’ came against predominantly running teams (Minnesota, Navy). Alabama isn’t the heavy-run offense they’ve been in the past with Lane Kiffin calling the plays, but they have no problem running the ball a lot to establish their dominance in the trenches.

The Tide also struggled to score points away from home this year with just 25.4 pts/game on the road compared to 37.1/game overall. Obviously this isn’t a true road game for ‘Bama, but they aren’t in the comforts of their own home here and with all the pressure on them as the heavy favorites to win here, this offense isn’t immune to tightening up a bit.

Finally, we’ve got to go back to the Meyer vs. Saban matchup and look a bit at their history. During the six seasons that Meyer was at Florida, his Gators teams faced Saban’s ‘Bama squads three times and not one game had more than 51 points scored. I know it was a different era and different teams, but there is something to be said for coaches that know one another like this and I believe this game – in terms of being low-scoring – plays out in a similar fashion. Everyone’s looking at the recent games for these two teams and seeing 40+ points on the board all the time and thinking this playoff game will be a shootout. I don’t think that will be the case, and like past Meyer/Saban matchups, this game won’t eclipse 51 points.

Take Under 58.5