After battling some burnout the past few weeks, the holidays have recharged my batteries and I’ll be back to posting regularly here at D Rock Sports. To begin I thought I’d give you my thoughts on the first college football playoff game this year as Florida State looks to prove their doubters wrong again with a win over Oregon.

Current Line at Pinnacle Sports: Florida State (+8) vs. Oregon (-8); Total set at 71

The defending National Champions from Florida State have had the whole college football world against them this year as many are waiting for them to lose their first game since 2012. The Seminoles aren’t nearly as dominant as they were a year ago, but surviving numerous close games and coming back from double digit halftime deficits this season could actually help them in these playoffs. This team knows how to perform with their backs against the wall and on the biggest stage, and that poise under pressure is a huge plus in a playoff game like this.

The problem is, Florida State was just 3-10 ATS this year as bettors routinely got burned by waiting to pounce on the Seminoles to finally turn the corner and blow someone out. That was never the case and now they are listed as underdogs for the first time since the 2011 season.

On the other side, Oregon has been blowing everyone out since their loss to Arizona in late-September and come into this one on an 8-0 ATS run. The lofty spreads haven’t been a problem for Oregon during that time and their 9-4 ATS record this year as been a nice bankroll boost for their bettors.

So who comes out on top?

Well first off, it’s not surprising to me that the Seminoles have seen a small majority of action so far as this number opened up at -9. Florida State’s ability to pull out victories in close games can’t be ignored and eight points is a lot to give up here if your Oregon. Remember, this Ducks team doesn’t have the same experience in big games and the injury to their best CB Ekpre-Olomu exposes them a bit on the back end. QB Jameis Winston has had problems with INT’s all year which is good news for Ducks fans, but without Ekpre-Olomu locking down half the field, the chances for a Duck INT go down quite a bit.

I do believe Oregon finds a way to win this game but I do not want to lay the -8 points here. Florida State has been flirting with disaster for too long this year and when you do that in a weak ACC Conference, it’s only a matter of time before a SU loss comes against the “big boys.” There is no doubt in my mind that Florida State is out to prove that they are still one of those “big boys” and have seen this lofty spread as an insult. They are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 Bowl games and 12-5-1 ATS on a neutral field, so I do expect the Seminoles to show up. So if you are looking to get down on this game before it starts, I would suggest taking the +8 points with the Seminoles.

However, I do believe there is a better way to play this game if you are able to make in-play bets. Like I said, I do believe Oregon gets the W here and would not be shocked to see them win by double digits. That being said though, this game will be back and forth early on as the Seminoles cannot afford another slow start and get down big to a talented team like the Ducks. They escaped disaster on numerous occasions with that script in ACC play, but if you get down big to the Ducks early on, Oregon just pours it on.

So I’m looking for a couple of things here. First off, if Florida State manages to score first or get up by say 10 points in the 1st frame, I’ll be looking to back the Ducks on the ML at + money. Mariotta and company are just too good and can erase deficits in a hurry (see the game vs. Michigan State this year). Even if it’s relatively close near half, I would have no problem getting down on the Ducks at -4 or less if that option is out there.

Secondly, if Florida State does get off to a slow start (per usual) and goes into the break down multiple scores, I have no problem grabbing a +14 or higher with the Seminoles on in-play wagering. The way they’ve dominated teams in the 2nd half of games and imposed their will can’t be ignored and Oregon has a reputation of tightening up when the going gets tough. Give Florida State a bit of momentum in the 2nd half and they’ll have no problem running with it.

Those are the things I’ll be looking for as this game goes through the first half and I could end up having multiple wagers on both sides looking for a nice middle range right around the current spread. Any in-play lines that are a few points lower and I’ll be taking the Ducks, while anything a few points higher I’ll be on Winston and company. If none of these situations come up, I have no problem sitting back and watching the action as a football fan with my money in my pocket.

This game should be a great one from start to finish and I for one am looking forward to spending New Year’s day watching it all unfold.