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NFL & CFB Strategy – Information + Preparation guide to winners in 2016

I first want to touch on bankroll management and how important it is to your success for the upcoming football seasons.  If you are looking to build a bankroll betting on football this year, start with setting yourself up with plan.  Long term success will come with having a plan and controlling your unit sizes.  Scared money don’t make money is something you have probably heard of before. I don’t believe in this saying, it was probably made up by the sportbooks that want your money.  Smart money makes money is what I believe.  You don’t want to put yourself in a hole early on in the football season.  Be prepared for the inevitable bad runs. Remind yourself not to chase losses and attempt to bailout. On the flip side, remember not to push too hard when on a hot run. Stay emotionless and realize that one wager does not make or break a season. All the hype is here, football is getting closer, everyday you see a tweet on twitter with how many days are left to kickoff in NFL and NCAAF, just be smart and don’t let all the hype make you make the wrong decisions with your hard earned money.  An unprepared bettor is a losing one.  Information is power, so do your due diligence by gathering as much material as possible to ensure yourself a good understanding for the upcoming seasons.  Understanding the biorhythm of a club before and during the season is essential for success.  That will help you gain insight into what the team is made of and how they will react week in and week out during the season's inevitable challenges. The football season offers lots of ups [...]

By |August 27th, 2016 11:55pm|Free Picks, NCAAF Strategy, NFL Strategy|0 Comments

Betting Favorites Early, Underdogs Wait Middle Possible

This is a simple strategy to use in any sport.  Lines are often made right away after a team's last game is played.   Say the line opens up -3 for the Dallas Cowboys on Monday, well the Cowboys are a public betting team and if you like them against the spread the next week you should take that line ASAP because once Sunday comes around it could be at -4 or -4.5 and your not getting the best number.  Now if you like the underdog the next week just sit back and let that Cowboy line keep going up and jump on it just before kick off.  This betting strategy is very profitable and works best on your public teams (ie. Heat, Cowboys, Packers, Bears, Thunder etc.) getting public money on them all week or all game day leading up to game time.  Betting Favorites early also can open up hedging opportunities with a middle possible depending on how much a line will move during the week/day and can increase profits along the way.

By |May 21st, 2016 12:50am|Betting Philosophy, Betting Strategy, NFL Strategy|0 Comments

Analyzing Line Movement: Important Tool for Finding Winners

When you begin you sports betting career you should think of the handicapping process (breaking down games/lines) a job you need to have the right "tools" for. One of the most important tools to have is learning how to successfully watch the lines (odds) move throughout the day and up until game time. You can get the answer (correct wager) by doing this and cross-referencing it with applicable trends and situations to get you to confirm a bet on a given team. Many come into their sports betting careers with the misconception that they have been following teams/leagues forever, watching Sportscenter, and knowing tho to pick as the winner. But the popular media outlets (ESPN, Fox Sports, TSN -for you Canadians) portray their message with generic narratives and common, often unusable tidbits of information. It's not that helpful for me to tell you Washington has won seven of their last eight games in New York when those eight games took place over 3-4 years with different team dynamics each season. If that stat is incorporated into your handicapping process as a whole when breaking down the game it can be used as evidence as to why to bet Washington that night but it shouldn't be the only reason you decide to make that wager. Like a lawyer trying to prove their case, you need to gather as much evidence as you can as to why Team X is the one you'll be betting on tonight. A good place to start is by using Sportsbook Review's betting odds side - found here. It tracks the odds all day across numerous sportsbooks for every game that day and you can click on a given game and see [...]

Profitable NFL Betting Situations

Here are some things to keep in mind when you are going through the weekly NFL schedule. 1: Look-ahead spots - Fade teams in these spots. With one game a week and a schedule mixed with very tough rivalry games and others against the bottom feeders of the league, situations pop up every week where you can figure out if a team is looking past a weaker opponent and ahead to a huge game (could be in primetime) against a quality opponent that will clearly get Team A's attention. For example, if you were to see the defending champion Seattle Seahawks hosting a bad team like Jacksonville one week prior to a huge game against a top rival like San Francisco. Seattle will definitely be laying plenty of points against the Jags but do you really expect the Seahawks to spend that whole week preparing for Jacksonville like it's a must-win game? Seattle knows that chances are they simply have to show up and they can beat Jacksonville outright. They will have one eye looking past the Jags and onto that game with the 49ers because they know that will be an intense game and they want to be peaking at that time. A bad team like the Jags won't get the Seahawks full attention and that's a great time to grab all those points with the underdog Jags. These spots pop up every week with opponents getting overlooked for a better one the next week and fading them works extremely well when those good teams are heavy favorites. 2: Let-down spots - Fade teams in these spots. This is another situation that's great to fade teams - typically favorites, after they've just had a [...]

By |May 12th, 2016 11:36pm|Betting Strategy, NFL Strategy|0 Comments

2015 NFL Betting Preview

NFL is just around the corner and in this post I am going to get you fine tuned for the upcoming NFL season from a bettors perspective.  Preseason is wrapping up and it's key to note that I wouldn't take in too much to do with a teams record coming out of preseason.  If a team owns a 4-0 record after preseason people tend to handicap week 1 games on how a team performed in the preseason by looking at their record.  Big Mistake.  For more September betting mistakes you can check out my article up here so you won't be done wrong early in the football betting season. With future bets I don't really look to take any OVER's because any time during the season a star player can get injured and would potentially crush my future play.  Especially early on before the preseason I would never wager on an over win total for any team because of preseason injury's. Head Coaching Changes: Falcons - In: Dan Quinn (former Seahawks DC) Bears - In: John Fox (former Broncos HC) Bills - In: Rex Ryan (former Jets HC) Broncos - In: Gary Kubiak (former Texans HC) Jets - In: Todd Bowles (former Arizona DC) Raiders - In: Jack Del Rio (former Broncos DC) 49ers - In: Jim Tomsula (promoted from 49ers defensive line coach) Did Head Coach 1 game after Mike Singletary was fired   Top 5 teams ATS 2014 (reg season): Arizona 11-5 Indy 10-5-1 Cleveland 9-5-2 KC 10-6 Minnesota 10-6 Top 5 Worst teams ATS 2014 (reg season): Tennessee 3-12-1 Washington 5-11 New Orleans 6-10 3 tied 49ers, Jets, Jags 6-9-1   Betting Tip for September: Betting can be hard sometimes because there [...]

By |August 30th, 2015 6:30pm|Free Picks, NFL Picks, NFL Season Win Totals, NFL Strategy|0 Comments