NFL YTD 5-7 (41.6%) -$270 GM #451 Redskins +7.5 -115 (SB) risking $115 to win $100 The Panthers are the definition of a team winning ugly.  I have lost a few times trying to fade this team this season so far, but now we have Carolina spotting over a TD to cover to win and in this spot I believe we are getting an inflated number.  Looking back at their games the Panthers have been involved in 5 one score games this season and now they have to win by more than a TD, no way!!  Only once have the Panthers out gained an opponent by 51 yards this season.  The Panthers have been a solid 7-2 against the spread this year, but covering a big number is foreign to them, having spotted more than five points just twice this season and failing to cover both times in a pair of close wins.  This is a tough spot for the Panthers as next Thursday they head to Dallas for a huge nationally televised game on Thanksgiving Day.  It’s easy to overlook the Redskins here and focus more on the Cowboys on Thanksgiving as the Panthers have been receiving a lot of attention this week as one of the last two remaining undefeated teams.   If you have been a backer of the Panthers they have been good to you, but now you get an inflated number and you will have to pay for it.  This is the spots I look for and I want to attack, Redskins plus the points. Good luck to all today and enjoy the games!!   Derek

NFL YTD 5-6 (45.4%) -$160 GM #258 Rams -7 -110 (SB) risking $110 to win $100 Tough spot for the Bears on the road today.  After an upset win on MNF against the Chargers and now coming off a short week, going on the road for the fourth time in the last 5 games and facing Todd Gurley, might be a recipe for disaster for the Bears.  This will be a different test for the Bears as the Rams own a stout D, ranked 5 overall, 4th against the pass and 5th with the pass rush (27 sacks).  They’ll have Robert Quinn and TJ McDonald returning to the lineup, as both sat out last week.  Jeff Fishers D has had recent success versus the Adam Gase designed offense beating Denver last season at home when Gase was the OC for the Broncos.The Rams have shown they can win by big margins this season at home with blowout wins versus the Browns and 49ers, I know these aren't powerhouse teams, but this is a bad spot for the Bears this week against a smothering D.  Rams win by 10.

NFL YTD 5-5 (50%) -$45 Game #461 Washington +14.5 -115 (Bovada) risking $115 to win $100 Simply put Profitable Betting situation #6 - Fade teams after two+ division games in a row when playing a non-division or non-conference foe.  

NFL YTD 5-4 (55.5%) +$70 Game #259 49ers +9 -115 (Sportsbook) risking $115 to win $100 Rams having to win by double digits to cover, no thank you.  I do not care about how bad this 49ers team is and how bad they played last game against the Seahawks, I do not bet teams I bet numbers and this number is way too much to lay in a divisional game here.  The market seems to have this 49ers team written off by the looks at this number.  Players are aware of point spreads and the 49ers have to be disrespected by the look of this number.  The Packers and New England are teams that have this type of price tag.  Not buying into this heavy chalk, my free pick is on the 49ers plus the points.

NFL YTD 5-3 (62.5%) +$180 Chiefs +4 -110 (Sports Interaction) risking $110 to win $100 Chiefs are losers of four in a row both SU and ATS and now are without their best player, Jamaal Charles, out for the season with an ACL injury is a team that you would not want to bet on.  These are situations I look for when bettors are down on a team, that teams stock is low and this is the case here.   On the other hand, you have a team that's stock is rising in Minnesota, and have looked great prior to their bye week covering three straight ATS.  After coming back as 7 point dogs and nearly upsetting the Broncos, the Vikings beat the Chargers 31-14.  Minnesota is coming off a bye and the market tends to like teams coming off a bye, add in a near upset against a strong Denver team on the road and covering 3 straight you get a sell high opportunity here.  Classic Buy Low sell high Theory.  When bettors write off a team, that is when I jump in and start to invest.   Possible upset here