NFL FREE PICK YTD 8-8 (50%) -$85 Kickoff 4:25pm EDT GM #330 49ers +6.5 -107 (pinnacle) risking $107 to win $100 49ers team that has been better in their home games compared to away games this season.  On this field, San Francisco is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS while allowing only 15.8 points per game.  The Niners were able to hold Green Bay, Seattle and Arizona to less than 21 points each at Levi Stadium.  Bengals are off 2 divisional opponents and now travel to the west coast playing an non-conference foe (falls under Profitable Betting Situation #6).  A.J. McCarron make his first NFL start in place of Andy Dalton this week and is also another spot that I like to fade in a QB's first road start of his career.  A.J has been in the media spotlight this week comparing himself to Tom Brady saying when he was drafted that they “play the game the same way”.   Cincy was in a very emotional game last week against the Steelers and they were fighting them on the field and in the media after that ugly home loss.  The fighting hasn't stopped this week, as players are still jabbing at each other on social media.   I see this a tough spot for the Bengals to get up for to play cross country against a live dog on this slow grass field at Levi Stadium.  I believe too much emphasis is on AJ and his cocky attitude that he thinks he can be like Tom Brady and the public has bought into it.  I can not pass up these kind of points on home field where the 49ers have been playing hard.   Good luck to all [...]

NFL YTD FREE PICKS RECORD 7-8 (46.6%) -$185 Kickoff 1pm EDT GM #117 Chargers +10.5 -110 (bet365) risking $110 to win $100 KC stock is soaring after winning 6 in a row SU and going 6-0 ATS as well.  This attracts bettors to this hot team and why not they have been cashing tickets for 6 straight weeks.  San Diego on the other hand has been awful and been a bust for bettors (4-8 ATS this season) and have not covered in nine straight AFC West games.  Sets up here for a nice buy low sell high spot with a team that is getting double digits to cover.  Dogs getting 7+ points this season are a cool 28-17 (62.2%) ATS this season.  Chargers also have the divisional revenge factor going for them this week after getting pummeled 33-3 by the Chiefs three weeks ago (worst division home loss since 1983!).  K.C. has never had to give away more than 4.5 points.  When favoured by 9.5 at home to the Bears in the middle of October, they lost straight up.  The Chargers have been a double digit dog only once this year and performed well in a 27-20 loss at Green Bay.  Too many points here, taking the road dog +10.5   Good luck to all on Sunday and enjoy the games!! Derek

GM #292 Edmonton Eskimos -7 -103 (pinnacle) risking $103 to win $100 Game played at Investors Group Field Winnipeg, Manitoba The Ottawa RedBlacks have been the "Cinderella" team in the CFL this season and made it here on a miracle throw for a TD in the final minutes last week against Hamilton to win and cover the 6.5 points.  At the season's beginning the Ottawa team had a season win total at 4 after a 2-16 season a year ago and have gone on to a 13 win team after last weeks victory.  It has been quite the year for the Redblacks franchise and their players, QB Henry Buris won the league's most outstanding player and WR Brad Sinopoli won the CFL's top Canadian player at a gala prior to the Grey Cup this week.  Just like my theory of fading the Heisman Trophy winner of the team in the CFB bowl game, the same applies here to fade the MVP in the Grey Cup.  The Public loves a "Cinderella" team and will look to "play on" a team in the big game especially now with the MVP being on that Redblacks "Cinderella" team. Yes it would be the perfect end to a great story should the RedBlacks pull this one out but I'm not counting on it.  Ottawa benefited this season playing easy competition especially their last 10 weeks of the season and caught most of these teams when the opposing teams had the injury bug (Toronto twice, Hamilton 3 times (T-Cats QB Zach Collaros was out), Winnipeg twice, Al's, Rough Riders and B.C.).  Ottawa in turn put up some big numbers against these teams that were hurting. Edmonton has gone 8-0 since the [...]

NFL YTD 6-8 (38.4%) -$285 GM #264 Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 +100 (pinnacle) risking $100 to win $100 Situational play here:  Bills off a short week Bills third straight road game Bills played three straight divisional opponents KC coming in hot winning and covering their last four games and winning those games by an average of 22.7 points.  KC has been tough to score against over their past six games only giving up an average of 12.1 points/game.  Chiefs win 24-13.   GL to everyone on Sunday, Derek

NFL YTD 5-8 (38.4%) -$385 GM #106 Lions -2 -108 (pinnacle) risking $108 to win $100 Lions defense has come together with wins over the Packers and Raiders averaging only 14.5ppg against in those wins.  Simply do not trust Eagles QB Sanchez tossing another 3 picks on Sunday against the Bucs to make it 15 INT in 11 games with the Eagles.  After getting a beat-down on Sunday by the hands of the Bucs it's tough to make the necessary adjustments to fix the problems for the Eagles on a short week.  With all the rumors of the Chip Kelly era coming to an end ringing in the Eagles ears, this can cause for a distraction for a short week road tilt.  Detroit statistically doesn't match well with the Eagles, but the Eagles are a hot mess right now and Detroit has a couple nice wins in a row after their bye week, Detroit wins by 4 24-20. Good Luck to all and Happy Thanksgiving to all my friends south of the boarder!! Derek