CFB Free Plays YTD 4-5 (44.4%) -$119 GM #146 Michigan +1 -104 (pinnacle) risking $104 to win $100 Like how Ohio st is coming off their first loss in over a year (Week 2 2014 vs. VTech) and have to go on the road and play in the "BIG HOUSE" one of the most hostile college football home field environments to play in.  Ohio st's playoff hopes were pretty much faded last week in their loss and will be hard to overcome that mentally for the players.   I see Ohio st. having trouble running the ball against this stout Michigan front 7 (has given up just 71 ypg rushing at home this season).  Even the pass D for Michigan has been solid with only allowing 2.3 ypc at home this season.  Ohio st. RB Elliot criticized the playcalling after getting only 12 carries (33 YR) in the 17-14 loss last week.  This is not going to get any easier this week and could lead to a frustrated Ohio st offense again.  Michigan has not only been doing it on defense, but their offense has seen some spark over a 3 game winning streak recently.  QB Jake Rudock 70% completions, 344 ypg passing with 10 TD passes his last 3 during Michigan's win streak.  The public will be quick to back the defending champs at this low number, but don't be mistaken for this line.  The oddsmakers don't make errors with their numbers and I won't be taking the bait.  Michigan wins this SU 27-24  

CFB Free Plays YTD 4-4 (50%) -$9 GM #400 Vandy +4 -110 (Bovada) risking $110 to win $100 Vandy still a shot at a bowl bid needing 2 more wins.  Aggies love the passing attack, but Vandy tough on D only allowing 7 touchdown passes this season.  Playing press coverage will challenge these speedy wide outs on A&M.  Vandy D has been tough to score on in the red zone ranking fourth in the nation in red zone defense nicknamed "Black Death".   Aggies D allowing 210.2 yards rushing per game the highest average in the SEC.  Vandy should be able to exploit this weakness with RB Ralph Webb who has averaged 107.3 yards rushing over his last four games.  QB issues for Texas A&M and a tough place to play where weather is going to be bit colder than this Aggies team is use to.  Vandy is a very live dog today and a possible upset here, but gladly will take the points.   Good luck to all tonight, Derek

CFB Free Plays YTD 3-4 (42.8%) -$129 GM #139 Tulane ml +120 (bet365) risking $100 to win $120 The Wave should be prepared for the Army option since it's their third time this season facing the triple-option (G-tech & Navy) which held both to season low yards rushing.   The Wave have surprisingly held two of its last three opponents (AAC powers Houston and Memphis) to season low yardage.  Tulanes QB is back and healthy and should pick apart a soft covering Army secondary.   Calling the small upset here.    

CFB YTD 3-3 (50%) -$29 Northwestern ml +104 (pinnacle) risking $100 to win $104 I expect NW HC Fitzgerald to have his team ready to bounce back in this one after a disappointing loss with 0 points scored against Michigan.  Northwestern D has been stout at home yielding only 6 ppg and only allowing 227 ypg in Evanston.  NW in full revenge mode for this one after last season's loss at Iowa 48-7, NW's worst loss since 2010.  Iowa had a significant loss last week with DE Drew Ott went down and is out with a torn ACL for the season (leads team in tackles for a loss and tied for lead in sacks).   The home team in this series has won 5 straight up and ATS.  Iowa banged up on the OL is a problem and see this team just wanting to get to their bye week (next week) and get some rest.  Northwestern will be hungry for the revenge win here today.

CFB YTD 3-2 (60%) +$77 BYU -9.5 -106 (pinnacle) risking $106 to win $100 BYU has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation (Nebraska, Boise St., UCLA, Michigan, UCONN) now get 8 days off to rest and play ECU who is playing their 4th road game in five weeks.   East Carolina is travelling 2250 miles across country and ascending 3583 feet vertically to Provo, Utah.  The altitude in Provo can be problematic to teams and tends to increase the chances that a visiting team from a low lying region will wear down in the 4th quarter of games.  East Carolina has found new life with jr. QB James Summers, who came off the bench to lead the Pirates to back-to-back comebacks: down 14-0 vs. Virginia Tech and 23-7 versus SMU.  Comebacks against two teams with weak D's in bad spots isn't saying much to me here, Saturday will be the true test for ECU's QB.  BYU now with film on ECU's QB Summers and not coming off the bench anymore actually starting on the road for the first time against a very defensive-minded head coach in BYU’s Bronco Mendenhall will be tough.  I like the personal match-up here for BYU against a less physical team: the top two running backs go 235 pounds and the OL from tackle to tackle, averages 312 pounds.  BYU’s wide receivers stand tall over ECU secondary: leading receiver Mitch Mathews stands 6’6”. Nick Kurtz and Terenn Houk are each 6’5” and the tallest starter in the ECU secondary stands 6’0".  This is a huge mismatch in this one and BYU should look to dominate here from start to finish.  ECU starting a new QB for the first time [...]