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NHL Friday Free Pick

NHL YTD 0-0 (0%) $0 Toronto Maple Leafs ml +145 (SB) risking $100 to win $145 First FREE NHL play from me this year. I like this spot for the Leafs tonight to get their first win of the season. Leafs are coming off five days rest and play their first road trip of the season (4 games). I like to attack first games of a road trip of 4 or more games, especially for a young team as getting out on the road for these young players build's relationships and can translate that to wins. With Mike Babcock having time to study film on the first three for Toronto he'll find a way to break the goose egg with more time to prepare. The Leafs have not been outshot in any of their three games thus far, which is a huge improvement from last season as they did not accomplish that even once last year. Toronto’s biggest problem so far has been its penalty kill, which allowed four goals against in 10 tries. I'm sure HC Mike Babcock will have his team working on that and improving it with that extra time off. The Jackets are 0-4 and they have allowed 20 goals against so far. Their goaltending has been horrible and Sergei Bobrovsky is back in net tonight after allowing 6 goals against last game and can't be trusted. Simply put here, in no way does Columbus deserve to be in this price range here tonight at -165. This is saying they have about a 62% chance to win this game (here is the implied conversion chart) when in reality it's about 50%, Huge overlay, Leafs win GL to all tonight and [...]

By Derek|October 16th, 2015 5:53pm|Free Picks, NHL Picks|0 Comments

MLB FREE Premium Pick

Game #923 Cardinals ml +210 (sportsbook) risking $300 to win $630 Simple value play here today in baseball. No need to go on about how good Jake is and has been for the Cubs, but in no way can he be favored in this price range against a 100 win ball club and what the Cardinals have been able to do to great pitchers in recent post seasons. They have beaten Kershaw twice last year in the post season and everyone said the same thing they are saying about Jake right now. Raving how great Jake is and the Cards last season went on and beat the NL MVP and Cy Young winner, Kershaw to advance. The Cards know how to win big games and in this price range I will put my money on the team who has had success taking down top tier talented pitchers.

By Derek|October 12th, 2015 11:24am|Free Picks, MLB Picks|0 Comments

NFL Sunday FREE PICK

Free Plays - NFL YTD 4-3 (57.1%) +$80 Washington +7 -110 (sportsbook) risking $110 to win $100 Here we are again with a team, the Falcons, that is blowing out their opposition which in turn causes their stock to soar high right now. Last week Atlanta opened as a 6.5 pt fav over Houston, but the market wasn’t buying its 3-0 start and Houston was taking money all week, which caused the line to drop to -4 by game time. Atlanta comes out and blows up Houston by half and was up 42-0 after three quarters. Public perception is a key aspect in sportsbetting and the public see's an undefeated team running up the score that team stock rises and everybody is jumping on the Falcons bandwagon here thinking that this team is easy money. The best time to jump on a team is when everyone jumps off. This scenario is the exact same as the Rams/Cardinals last week as the Cards were on fire blowing out teams (95 points in two games) then lost outright to the Rams as 7 point favs. The market has reacted by overvaluing the Falcons here against Redskins because of how badly they are beating teams and this is a situation I like to attack with this classic case of overreaction. Washington ranks in the top 10 of both offense and defense owning the league’s #1 rated rush offense and the #2 rated rush defense and has been in every game this season. They have outgained all four opponents in all of their games this season. Kirk Cousins has been efficient thus far and let’s not forget that the Falcons gave up 37 points to Dallas minus Tony Romo [...]

By Derek|October 11th, 2015 10:01am|Free Picks, NFL Picks|0 Comments

CFB Saturday FREE PICK

CFB YTD 3-2 (60%) +$77 BYU -9.5 -106 (pinnacle) risking $106 to win $100 BYU has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation (Nebraska, Boise St., UCLA, Michigan, UCONN) now get 8 days off to rest and play ECU who is playing their 4th road game in five weeks. East Carolina is travelling 2250 miles across country and ascending 3583 feet vertically to Provo, Utah. The altitude in Provo can be problematic to teams and tends to increase the chances that a visiting team from a low lying region will wear down in the 4th quarter of games. East Carolina has found new life with jr. QB James Summers, who came off the bench to lead the Pirates to back-to-back comebacks: down 14-0 vs. Virginia Tech and 23-7 versus SMU. Comebacks against two teams with weak D's in bad spots isn't saying much to me here, Saturday will be the true test for ECU's QB. BYU now with film on ECU's QB Summers and not coming off the bench anymore actually starting on the road for the first time against a very defensive-minded head coach in BYU’s Bronco Mendenhall will be tough. I like the personal match-up here for BYU against a less physical team: the top two running backs go 235 pounds and the OL from tackle to tackle, averages 312 pounds. BYU’s wide receivers stand tall over ECU secondary: leading receiver Mitch Mathews stands 6’6”. Nick Kurtz and Terenn Houk are each 6’5” and the tallest starter in the ECU secondary stands 6’0". This is a huge mismatch in this one and BYU should look to dominate here from start to finish. ECU starting a new QB for the first time [...]

By Derek|October 9th, 2015 11:16pm|Free Picks, NCAAF Picks|0 Comments

Derek’s FREEBIE Friday MLB Premium Card

Like I said MLB is free from me the rest of the season right up to the World Series, here are 2 client plays sent out for today: Drock Best Bet in BOLD MLB: First Pitch 12:45pm EDT Game #909 Rangers ml +169 (pinnacle) risking $400 to win $676 This was one of the hardest wagers I have placed in a long while, being from Toronto and seeing the home team make the playoffs for the first time in 22 years is just simply amazing. I do not bet with my heart I bet to win with whatever side I feel is the right side to play on with the best value. Rangers is the right side to play on here as for the Jays it feels like a "must win" spot, but must win spots are not automatic "play on" spots for me. The Rangers seem to be relaxed and playing under no pressure whatsoever. The Jays probably playing so nonchalant by losing four of its last five games after they clinched the AL East wasn’t such a good idea after all. It’s a rare day when Cole Hamels is being offered a price like this and I have to attack the Rangers in this spot at this price because of how good he has been in the playoffs over the years. Hamel's has made 13 starts in the playoffs and he’s gone 7-4 with a 3.09 ERA including a 5-1 mark with a 2.01 ERA on the road. At the age of 31 years old, Hamels is as good as ever. Hamels continues to miss bats at an excellent rate with 215 K’s in 212 innings. I do not see any fatigue with [...]

By Derek|October 9th, 2015 11:20am|Free Picks, MLB Picks|0 Comments

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