NFL FREE PICK YTD 8-8 (50%) -$85 Kickoff 4:25pm EDT GM #330 49ers +6.5 -107 (pinnacle) risking $107 to win $100 49ers team that has been better in their home games compared to away games this season.  On this field, San Francisco is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS while allowing only 15.8 points per game.  The Niners were able to hold Green Bay, Seattle and Arizona to less than 21 points each at Levi Stadium.  Bengals are off 2 divisional opponents and now travel to the west coast playing an non-conference foe (falls under Profitable Betting Situation #6).  A.J. McCarron make his first NFL start in place of Andy Dalton this week and is also another spot that I like to fade in a QB's first road start of his career.  A.J has been in the media spotlight this week comparing himself to Tom Brady saying when he was drafted that they “play the game the same way”.   Cincy was in a very emotional game last week against the Steelers and they were fighting them on the field and in the media after that ugly home loss.  The fighting hasn't stopped this week, as players are still jabbing at each other on social media.   I see this a tough spot for the Bengals to get up for to play cross country against a live dog on this slow grass field at Levi Stadium.  I believe too much emphasis is on AJ and his cocky attitude that he thinks he can be like Tom Brady and the public has bought into it.  I can not pass up these kind of points on home field where the 49ers have been playing hard.   Good luck to all [...]

NFL YTD FREE PICKS RECORD 7-8 (46.6%) -$185 Kickoff 1pm EDT GM #117 Chargers +10.5 -110 (bet365) risking $110 to win $100 KC stock is soaring after winning 6 in a row SU and going 6-0 ATS as well.  This attracts bettors to this hot team and why not they have been cashing tickets for 6 straight weeks.  San Diego on the other hand has been awful and been a bust for bettors (4-8 ATS this season) and have not covered in nine straight AFC West games.  Sets up here for a nice buy low sell high spot with a team that is getting double digits to cover.  Dogs getting 7+ points this season are a cool 28-17 (62.2%) ATS this season.  Chargers also have the divisional revenge factor going for them this week after getting pummeled 33-3 by the Chiefs three weeks ago (worst division home loss since 1983!).  K.C. has never had to give away more than 4.5 points.  When favoured by 9.5 at home to the Bears in the middle of October, they lost straight up.  The Chargers have been a double digit dog only once this year and performed well in a 27-20 loss at Green Bay.  Too many points here, taking the road dog +10.5   Good luck to all on Sunday and enjoy the games!! Derek