­

MLB Betting Strategies: Handicapping Pitchers after a no-hitter

No-hitters are a rare accomplishment in MLB, but we do see a handful of them each season. With many bettors going by the "what have you done for me lately" thought process, they look to jump on these pitchers in their next start and expect them to dominate again. More often than not these pitchers/teams are heavy favorites with their stud on the hill and everyone goes to the betting window ready to lay the heavy juice. I am not one of those bettors as after heavily following baseball for 7+ years now, fading a pitcher after a no-no tends to work well. This strategy also applies to near no-hitters that were broken up late (8th/9th inning) as well as complete game shutouts for a pitcher. Strategy: Fade Teams with a Pitcher making his first start after throwing a no hitter/complete game shut out and take 'over' the total as well. In it's basic form this strategy has it's deepest roots in regression. You've just watched a guy mow down a team without allowing a run or a hit and all the media outlets and general baseball fans are singing this guy's praises. The pitcher performed at a peak level and everyone is expecting something similar from him in his next start. But I am the one that is expecting that pitcher to regress quickly back to their average form and that means a bad outing is on the horizon. MLB hitters are the best hitters in the world and after you get the best of them one day, regression to the means suggests that you'll struggle against them the next time you are out there. There have been nine no-hitters since the start of [...]

By |May 16th, 2014 2:13pm|Betting Strategy, MLB Strategy|0 Comments

Betting Strategies to Win Money Betting NBA Postseason

These are all great starting points when breaking down the daily NBA board and shouldn't only be used to make a bet, but ignoring these things can be deadly to your bankroll. 1: Zig-Zag Theory I talked about this briefly in my NHL Playoffs Strategy piece, but truth be told it work much better in the NBA. Basketball is a more fluid game than hockey in terms of points being scored and runs being made, so it's easier to get on a team that lost previously and expect them to bounce back. Home court advantage also tends to work better in the NBA playoffs so if you've got a home team desperate for a win and fits this theory (ie after a loss) it's a good time to get on them. There were three specific spots in Round 1 where I thought the zig-zag + home court desperation applied and you would have went 2-1 SU and ATS. Those games were Chicago (Game 5), Houston (Game 5) and Golden State (Game 6). 2: Beware of the 20+ point blowout - Take Teams ATS after losing by 20+ Playoffs are unique in that you really get a handle on what works against an opponent because you play them every time out there. But sometimes in this game, there will be a time when one team just owns the other on a given night and blows them out of the water. Once the losing team starts to see this game has gotten out of hand it's time to rest their guys and begin gearing up for the next game to try and get that win back. The amount of anger and motivation that losing team has in [...]

By |May 5th, 2014 4:37pm|Betting Strategy, NBA Strategy|0 Comments

NHL Playoff Betting – 3 Situations to Keep an Eye Out For

Generic NHL Playoff Strategies to Keep in Mind: 1: Game 1′s and Elimination Games “Under” the total -with one exception Again this is not a hard and fast rule in NHL betting and with the way the playoffs have started this season you’d be down multiple units strictly living by this rule. But the logic behind it is this; Game 1′s tend to start out tentative with each team going through the feeling out process. Neither team wants to start the series down 1-0 in the series and with many more meetings ahead coaches do like to play close to the vest. Showing everything you have in the series opener will hurt you later on in the series. As far as the ‘unders’ in elimination games go, the thinking is quite similar as the both teams want to do everything they can to keep the puck out of their net. If it’s the team that’s trailing in the series they aren’t looking to dig themselves another hole to come out of to try and stay alive. The leading team knows they have to weather an early storm from the trailer and if they can do that then it becomes a game of trying to capitalize on mistakes during the counter attack. Game 7′s are especially good for betting “unders’ as the “playing not to lose” mantra applies to both teams and you’ll generally see the refs keep the whistles in their pockets to avoid being the ones that decide the game. The one exception to this rule that I use is to avoid playing ‘unders’ when a team is in position to get swept. Those games see the losing team come out like gangbusters to [...]

By |April 18th, 2014 6:58pm|Betting Strategy, NHL Strategy|0 Comments

NHL: Profitable Regular Season Betting Situations

There's lots of money to be made all season long in hockey and here's a few profitable ways to make it during the regular season. 1:  Money line Dogs Just like in baseball don't shy away from taking a underdog on the money line.  If your taking favorites all the time, they don't always win and if your paying -140 on a favorite it can eat at your bankroll if they lose.  If you have a home team underdog here look at leaning to take them straight up to win. 2:  Long Winning streaks One profitable theory I use here is if a team is on say a 7 game winning streak,  instead of betting every time you think they are going to lose all you have to do is wait until they lose.  What?? ya just wait until they lose and take them to LOSE the next game after.  This works out well during the season because there's always teams that have winning streaks.  The game after the winning is lost theory 3:  Long road trips Every once in a while teams have to go out on the road for 6 or more games and that can be a lot of overcome especially for younger teams.  These trips are tough and can take it's toll on the players near the end of them,  playing almost every other night can do that.  I look to fade the road team in the last game of their long road trip (6 or more games).  Also after these long road trips you usually get to take 3 or 4 days off which can be nice for the players to re-coup so I will look to take that team [...]

By |April 18th, 2014 5:01pm|Betting Strategy, NHL Strategy|0 Comments