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March Madness Betting Strategies

This is always one of the most exciting (and long) week's of the sports betting season as March Madness attracts no shortage of action. With all the excitement and publicity the tournament brings, office pools pop up everywhere and recreational bettors flood the market with action. With all that money in play and shifting lines around, there can be some very profitable spots in college basketball betting over the next few weeks, so let's go over a few general things I always keep in mind at this time of year. NCAA March Madness Strategies 1: Don't fall in love with your bracket or avoid them all together. Bracket pools are always fun and exciting to get involved with and you can win some decent paydays in pools with a successful bracket. But the majority of the time brackets are busted early and often with losses piling up everywhere. You've probably (or will) spend quite a bit of time going through your picks for the tournament and what not, which is fine, but don't fall in love with those selections as the tournament goes on - even if you've nearly gone perfect up till the later rounds. I say that because the point spread is always the great equalizer in sports betting and you'll always tend to have a bias when handicapping later games based on your bracket selections. Handicapping games takes a lot of work to find winners and if you are already attacking them with a bias towards your bracket selections you are doing yourself a disservice. You aren't taking in all of the information as an objective viewer and when you do back those teams you picked in your bracket and they lose, [...]

By |March 16th, 2015 4:22pm|Betting Strategy, Free Picks|0 Comments

How I’m Attacking Conference Championship Weekend

Championship Weekend in the NFL is always a great Sunday of action as we've got familiar teams battling out with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Players can make names for themselves during this game and subsequently get two weeks to talk about it after they win, but with two Conference Championship games this year that are rematches from the regular season there is plenty to talk about this week: Lines; Green Bay (+7.5) vs. Seattle (-7.5); Total set at 46.5 Indianapolis (+6.5) vs. New England (-6.5); Total set at 53.5 As most of you may know, I've always been a totals guy to the core and that won't change this weekend. I like both of these numbers where they sit right now and have made premium plays on both of them. As far as the sides go, both underdogs are the ones with revenge here after the Packers and Colts lost by double digits earlier this year to their respective opponents and I would not be shocked to see at least one of them win outright. However, to me this weekend has all the feel of Seattle and New England moving on so we can get two weeks of talk about how Seattle will be the "greatest defense ever" if they take down Manning and Brady in consecutive Super Bowls. Talking heads in the media love their storylines and there isn't one much bigger than that in my opinion. If I had to make wagers on these spreads, I'd lay the chalk with Seattle even at 7.5 because I think they blitz Rodgers and his sore calf early and often to not let him get it loose and come back strong in [...]

By |January 16th, 2015 6:07pm|Betting Strategy, Free Picks, NFL Picks|0 Comments

World Cup Elimination Stage Betting Strategies

I'll start this piece off with a minor disclaimer stating I don't follow soccer at all and have had a tough time getting into it my entire life. But since sports betting has become a huge part of my work the last decade, there are some strategies I've found to be successful in big tournaments like the World Cup and Euro Cup. These are bets I have no problem getting down on when the time comes later in the tournament. Strategy #1: Third Place Game OVER the total This is a play I can guarantee you I'll be on this year. The logic behind it is simple. These two teams are extremely disappointed about falling one game short of their ultimate goal and yet they have to go out there and play one more game. With soccer being such a structured, defensive-minded game, it's in this game that the teams open it up tremendously with nothing left to play for. No one remember's 3rd place so the stars might as well go out there and try to score internationally and give the fans a show. In 2010 we saw a 3-2 score from this game, 2006 saw a 3-1 score, 2002 saw a 3-2 score, 1998 was 2-1 and 1994 finished with a 4-0 score in this game. With totals in soccer generally being set at 2.5, all five of the past 3rd place games would have cashed an 'over' bet and I don't believe it will change in 2014. Again, there isn't much reason for these teams to pack things in defensively as the big trophy is out of reach at this point and the scorers look to shine. Strategy #2: Semi-Finals Games UNDER [...]

By |June 24th, 2014 4:06pm|Betting Strategy|0 Comments

Don’t overreact to the injury report

Everyday you see late scratches from the lineup and the line moves in favor of the team with the player who is not injured.  The betting public notices and they hurry to the counter to try to beat the odds-makers before the line changes.  This is public overreaction that I don't react to until the time is right.   The key to this process is patience, you need to have patience and wait till the time is right to make your move on the line.   This works particularly well in the NFL as the injury report comes out an hour and a half before game time.  The best thing to do is have a number in your mind on the game that you would like to see and if you see it before game time jump on it.  I don't blindly wager every time I see an injury of a player for a team, but if there is a majority of the public overreacting  to an injury you have to think twice about leaning with the public.  The media also plays a big role in pumping up how significant an injury can be to a team and everyone notices that and bets the other way.  Just use contrarian thinking and you will be adding bills to your stack in no time.

By |May 18th, 2014 2:15pm|Betting Philosophy, Betting Strategy, NFL Strategy|0 Comments

MLB Betting Strategies: Flip Flopping in Double Headers

Double headers come up often enough during an MLB season that it's important to keep them on your radar. With teams giving guys the 1st or 2nd game off for rest, lineup announcements are important, but as a general rule this is a strategy I use for handicapping Game 2 of the twin bill. Strategy: Take the team on the ML who lost Game 1 of the double-header and flip flop with the total as well. It's not always this simple, but sweeping a double header is very tough in baseball and more often than not you'll see the two teams split the day. It's great when the Game 1 loser comes back as the underdog in Game 2 as the + money should add a few extra dollars to your bankroll. In terms of the total, the same logic applies so that if the first game went 'under' the total, take the second game 'over' and vice-versa. In the on-going war between hitters and pitchers, they are likely to split on the day as well. Sometimes the pitching matchup in the 2nd game will scare bettors away from backing an 'over' (if aces are on the hill for example), but studs do get hit hard too and I've used this strategy to cash numerous bets in my baseball betting career. Obviously you have to incorporate other factors like line movement, betting percentages and the like to these Game 2 plays, but if you go into double headers with the thought of avoiding making plays on Game 1 (unless there are factors mentioned above that warrant a play), and look for those flip flop scenarios in Game 2, your bankroll will thank you for it.

By |May 16th, 2014 2:56pm|Betting Strategy, MLB Strategy|0 Comments