I first want to touch on bankroll management and how important it is to your success for the upcoming football seasons.  If you are looking to build a bankroll betting on football this year, start with setting yourself up with plan.  Long term success will come with having a plan and controlling your unit sizes.  Scared money don’t make money is something you have probably heard of before. I don’t believe in this saying, it was probably made up by the sportbooks that want your money.  Smart money makes money is what I believe.  You don’t want to put yourself in a hole early on in the football season.  Be prepared for the inevitable bad runs. Remind yourself not to chase losses and attempt to bailout. On the flip side, remember not to push too hard when on a hot run. Stay emotionless and realize that one wager does not make or break a season.

All the hype is here, football is getting closer, everyday you see a tweet on twitter with how many days are left to kickoff in NFL and NCAAF, just be smart and don’t let all the hype make you make the wrong decisions with your hard earned money.  An unprepared bettor is a losing one.  Information is power, so do your due diligence by gathering as much material as possible to ensure yourself a good understanding for the upcoming seasons.  Understanding the biorhythm of a club before and during the season is essential for success.  That will help you gain insight into what the team is made of and how they will react week in and week out during the season’s inevitable challenges. The football season offers lots of ups and downs. Situations will be presented throughout the year that could be very profitable for those that understand the makeup of a team and how they enter each contest.

September betting can be hard sometimes because there are basically no emotional letdowns in the first four weeks.  By October, November and December you will see more letdowns and upsets across the board because early on no one is mentally or physically tired.  During the first four weeks look to bet against the highly public perceived teams as their lines tend to be inflated as oddsmakers haven’t adjusted.  Playoff teams from a year ago are often inflated as these teams are typically in primetime spots alot early in the year.  The only thing the public likes more than favorites are “Prime Time Favorites”. Remember favorites cover between 46-49% in any sports database, so be patient in primetime spots as the favorite number could rise and get inflated and that’s when a wager on the underdog could be a great play.  Look for overreactions week 2 in both NFL and CFB as bettors tend to place wagers to how that team performed the first week thinking that will automatically happen again.  Overreaction is one major factor I stress alot for success in this industry. It is an unjustified and over-the-top claim that will be stated as fact after just one game.  This happens on a consistent basis as we are made to believe what we just saw previously will happen again the next game.  Often times after a week in football or high profile game sports bettors will overreact either positively or negatively towards the teams involved, sometimes even to the point of overcompensation.  This is one of the biggest sportsbetting traps that can be set in regards to the reaction of the general sports betting public to a previous game.  Make sure you are not one to fall into this trap.

Regression to the mean is a technical way of saying that things tend to even out over time.  In sports, overachieving or underachieving numbers tend to regress back to average over time, specifically from week to week or from season to season.  By understanding regression, you can find excellent value week in week out in both CFB and NFL. Awareness of over and under performances by teams/players, scheduling and public perception can net you more winners this football season.   With the knowledge of regression to the mean, this should help bettors better understand the influences of market perception.  Adjustments are apart of sports, if Team A gives away the ball 5 times one game, expect that to be the focus next game to maintain procession and regress.  This is where inflated lines of ugly losses of your “unsexy” teams can pad your bankroll and increase your ROI during the season.  Be patient, pay attention to the market and take advantage of certain situations.

Learning from past mistakes and understanding what works can only assist in improving and fine tuning your game.  Continuing to develop your understanding of the marketplace and how to read opening numbers and why numbers move the way they do is critical to long term success in any sport.  Remember, you are betting numbers and not teams.  The number may or may not offer value depending on your approach and the amount of edge in that value will determine the size of your wager.  Lastly, make sure that you’re getting the best price.  Back in the old days, a bettor was required to lay -110 odds on all sides and totals. This is no longer the case anymore with so many books becoming readily available.  You can bet at discounted odds of -105.  While only a few books offer this great value, it’s imperative to take advantage of this as it reduces your breakeven point from 52.38% to 51.19%.If you are serious about investing in sports then you must have an account with both a “public” book and a “sharp” book to increase your bankroll by getting the best number.  “Getting the best number” is a term that must be cemented in your brain and cannot be forgotten about when sports investing.  The oddsmakers make the lines so tight that a half point can either make you a winner or loser.  A “public” book refers to a book that lines up to favor a popular team.  A “sharp” book refers to a book that offers high limits, sets up their own lines and does not offer many exotics often seen on many “public” books.  If you prefer to back the underdog you more times than not will get a half point maybe even a point better at a “public” sportsbook compared to a “sharp” sportsbook yet the limits are much lower at “public” books.  Use both books to your advantage this upcoming football season and you will see your investments grow.

I hope now you are tuned in to making some money this football season, let’s get to both NFL and CFB projected outlooks this 2016 season.

CFB:

In college, the turnover of players is high as players get drafted, graduate and transfer schools. Coaching changes and player transfers have happened.  For the average bettor it can be overwhelming to go through and research every team and league before and during the college football season. My advice, and I did this when I was first starting out, was to concentrate my time on one conference. Know every team, player and coaching staff for that conference and study only the schedules and history of that one conference. Research and read the local papers of these schools, check out their social media pages, get to know every detail there is to find information that might not be factored in the line to find you that edge. A win is a win doesn’t matter from what conference and if you concentrate on just one conference chances are you will benefit better during the season.

Here are some profitable betting situations to look for early on this season.

New to the team theory:  Works like this: look over the games and circle any of the teams that have introduced a new head coach to the team in the offseason (especially if the team has brought in a high profile coach for a high profile team). Second, put a double circle if that team has introduced a new quarterback to the team as well. Third, look to attack against this team on their first true road game of the season. It’s a lot to take in for a new coach and new QB on the road in hostile environments with brand new offense gameplans to follow and the inexperience of the two working together. For a young kid that’s a hard situation for anybody to be in.

This past season there has been 28 coaching changes compared to last years 15.  That’s alot of coaches trading teams this season and alot of programs feeling the heat for positive turnarounds. With new coaches comes new systems and this can take some time to develop into the schools program.  There is alot of pressure on the coaching staff to succeed when coming into a new program especially well known ones. I like to look for stability in the coaching staff as it provides a clear direction where the program wants to go.  It’s also hard for new coaches to come into a program with new players and try to teach them a completely different playbook from what they were use to the prior season(s).  I look to tread lightly with new coaches to new teams early in the season and especially teams with a new coach and new QB.

Only 3 head coaches who took over a program the last 3 years (3-30-1) with a losing record had a winning first season as HC: 2015: Jim Harbaugh Michigan 10-3, 2013: Gus Malzahn Auburn 12-2 & Steve Addazio Boston College 7-6.  Coaches taking over a losing program for 2016 are: Ball st, UCF (0-12), East Carolina, Hawaii, Illinios, Iowa st, UL Monroe, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, North Texas, Rutgers, South Carolina, Syracuse, Texas St, Tulane, UTSA and Virginia.

On the flip side 24 heads who took over a program the last 3 years (24-7-1) with a winning record had a winning first season.  Coaches taking over a winning team for 2016 are: Bowling Green, BYU, Georgia, Georgia Southern, Memphis, Miami, Southern Mississippi, Toledo, USC and Virginia Tech.

Look for coaches coming into their third season with a team who have experience back to make a difference ATS this season.  Coaches coming into their third season have now had time to recruit their players, implement their systems, pick their coaching staff and enforce their rules.  Coaches in their third year are also on the hot seat if their team the previous years has under-performed.  Look for teams with a third year head coach to be aggressive that coming season.

Negative Turnover Margin from the previous year – When teams turnover the ball more often they tend to lose the game more times than not and more importantly they fail to cover the spread. Teams in the offseason will focus more on maintaining possession/protecting the ball and in turn will have a more positive turnover margin than the last and I will look to those teams to cover more spreads in the upcoming year.  Remember, players are human.  They have certain habits and tendencies that are hard to break and that is why establishing a long-term analysis of their propensity for making turnovers is a critical element in your turnover examination.Top 10 Worst Turnover Margin Teams in 2015:

1. Hawaii -23
2. UCF -20
3. Cincinnati -19
4. Maryland -18
5. ULM -16
6. Miami Ohio -14
7. Wake Forest, Eastern Michigan, Charlotte -13
8. Rice, Nebraska, Colorado St. -12
9. Wyoming, Iowa St., Army, UTEP -11
10. SMU -10

With the worst turnover margin comes a teams stock that is low coming into the next season and tend to get bigger spreads to cover and I look towards moving on these teams earlier in the season.
Last seasons Best and worst teams against the Spread:

Why is this important? Because a team that cost you money ATS last season will commonly be viewed upon the next season as the same kind of team and vice versa if they won you money. These teams you should approach with caution this season.

Best:

Toledo 9-2-1

Washington St 10-3-0

South Florida 9-3-1

Stanford, Bowling Green, Southern Mississippi 10-4-0

Oklahoma, Navy, Georgia Southern, Central Michigan, Ohio 9-4-0

Worst:

Central Florida 2-10

Charlotte  2-7-2

Hawaii 3-10

Georgia Tech, Missouri, Oregon st., Kansas, Kentucky, Kent st. 3-9

Auburn, Penn st. 4-9

As you can see, just blind betting on/against the teams with the best or worst TO ratio would have resulted in profitable wagering.  Needless to say, it isn’t that simple.  However it does give you a good starting point to build from.

Now you can see how teams that turn over the ball do not cover spreads.  From a year ago the best ATS teams are not even in the top worst TO margin teams, but you have the top 3 worst ATS all in the top 7 worst TO margin teams.  Negative Turnover margin gives you a key edge preseason in helping to determine teams that could be in for a turnaround year.

Only 2 teams of the 2014 teams made the list for the second straight year in 2015 (Michigan improving the most going from -16 to a +14 TO margin): Georgia St. -22, Eastern Michigan -18, Washington St. -17, Michigan -16, Vanderbilt -16, West Virginia -15, SMU -14, Connecticut -13, New Mexico St. -13, Texas Tech -13

Your Worst ATS 2014 teams:

AKRON, OREGON ST, SAN JOSE ST (3-9), FLORIDA ST (3-10), UCONN (2-10)

2015: Akron 8-5, Oregon st 3-9, San Jose st 8-5, Florida St. 8-5, UConn 5-8

Only 1 team did not improve from a year ago, Oregon St, but this year I believe they will improve from a ATS perspective with Gary Anderson in his second year with two recruiting classes under his belt and his system now in place.

Teams ATS on the rise in 2016:

Oregon St.,Rice, Army, UCF, Old Dominion, Vandy, Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Kansas, Missouri and Cincy.

Teams ATS looking down in 2016:

Iowa, Northwestern, Navy, Temple, Stanford and Bowling Green.

Over-hyped teams in 2016: could get some inflated lines early on

Michigan, LSU, Tennessee, Washington st and Washington

NFL:

Starting the NFL season, I wouldn’t take in too much to do with a teams record coming out of preseason.  If a team owns a 4-0 record after preseason people tend to handicap week 1 games on how a team performed in the preseason by looking at their overall preseason record.  Big Mistake.  By applying similar CFB strategies to the NFL you can make your predictions using the same theories.  Negative turnover ratio applies to both the NFL and CFB as does your best and worst teams against the spread.  It all relates back to regression to the mean.

Top 5 Worst Turnover Margin Teams in 2015:

1. Dallas -22
2. Ravens/Titans -14
3. Jaguars -10
4. Browns -9
5. Falcons -7