Welcome to my annual college football betting preview. I am going to keep the same format as last year as I will be examining it from a bettors perspective and not just previewing each conference and team. There are a lot of schools in college football and I do my homework and study the scheduling to find the best situations to move with and attack against as the season rolls on. In college the turnover of players is high as players get drafted, graduate and transfer schools. Coaching changes and player transfers have happened and I compile all this information to find the best spots and numbers.
For the average bettor it can be overwhelming to go through and research every team and league before and during the college football season. My advice, and I did this when I was first starting out, was to concentrate my time on one conference. Know every team, player and coaching staff for that conference and study only the schedules and history of that one conference. Research and read the local papers of these schools, check out their social media pages, get to know every detail there is to find information that might not be factored in the line to find you that edge. A win is a win doesn’t matter from what conference and if you concentrate on just one conference chances are you will benefit better during the season. To stat collecting data I use cfbstats.com to gather information from the previous year.
Profitable Betting situations to look out for this year:
Also up here is my list of CFB Profitable Theory’s that I look for every week during the season
New to the team: Works like this: look over the games and circle any of the teams that have introduced a new head coach to the team in the offseason (especially if the team has brought in a high profile coach for a high profile team). Second, put a double circle if that team has introduced a new quarterback to the team as well. Third, look to attack against this team on their first true road game of the season. It’s a lot to take in for a new coach and new QB on the road in hostile environments with brand new offense gameplans to follow and the inexperience of the two working together. For a young kid that’s a hard situation for anybody to be in. Simply put, this situation has been extremely profitable over the years to me and just passing along to my loyal readers.
Coaching changes to for the 2016 college football season to keep an eye on:
Ball State – Out: Pete Lembo In: Mike Neu
Bowling Green – Out: Dino Babers In: Mike Jink
BYU – Out: Bronco Mendenhall In: Kalani Sitake
Central Florida – Out: George O’Leary In: Scott Frost
East Carolina – Out: Ruffin McNeill In: Scottie Montgomery
Georgia – Out: Mark Richt In: Kirby Smart
Georgia Southern – Out: Willie Fritz In: Tyson Summers
Hawaii – Out Norm Chow In: Nick Rolovich
Illinois – Out: Tim Beckman / Bill Cubit In: Lovie Smith
Iowa State – Out: Paul Rhoads In: Matt Campbell
Louisiana-Monroe – Out: Todd Berry In: Matt Viator
Maryland – Out: Randy Edsall In: D.J. Durkin
Memphis – Out: Justin Fuente In: Mike Norvell
Miami – Out: Al Golden In: Mark Richt
Minnesota – Out: Jerry Kill In: Tracy Claeys
Missouri – Out: Gary Pinkel In: Barry Odom
North Texas Out: Dan McCarney In: Seth Littrell
Rutgers – Out: Kyle Flood In: Chris Ash
South Carolina – Out: Steve Spurrier In: Will Muschamp
Southern Miss – Out: Todd Monken In: Jay Hopson
Syracuse – Out: Scott Shafer In: Dino Babers
Texas State – Out: Dennis Franchione In: Everett Withers
Toledo – Out: Matt Campbell In: Jason Candle
Tulane – Out: Curtis Johnson In: Willie Fritz
USC – Out: Steve Sarkisian In: Clay Helton
UTSA – Out: Larry Coker In: Frank Wilson
Virgina – Out: Mike London In: Bronco Mendenhall
Virginia Tech – Out: Frank Beamer In: Justin Fuente
This past season there has been 28 coaching changes compared to last years 15. That’s alot of coaches trading teams this season and alot of programs feeling the heat for positive turnarounds. With new coaches comes new systems and this can take some time to develop into the schools program. There is alot of pressure on the coaching staff to succeed when coming into a new program especially well known ones. I like to look for stability in the coaching staff as it provides a clear direction where the program wants to go. It’s also hard for new coaches to come into a program with new players and try to teach them a completely different playbook from what they were use to the prior season(s). I look to tread lightly with new coaches to new teams early in the season and especially teams with a new coach and new QB.
Only 3 head coaches who took over a program the last 3 years (3-30-1) with a losing record had a winning first season as HC: 2015: Jim Harbaugh Michigan 10-3, 2013: Gus Malzahn Auburn 12-2 & Steve Addazio Boston College 7-6. Coaches taking over a losing program for 2016 are: Ball st, UCF (0-12), East Carolina, Hawaii, Illinios, Iowa st, UL Monroe, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, North Texas, Rutgers, South Carolina, Syracuse, Texas St, Tulane, UTSA and Virginia.
On the flip side 24 heads who took over a program the last 3 years (24-7-1) with a winning record had a winning first season. Coaches taking over a winning team for 2016 are: Bowling Green, BYU, Georgia, Georgia Southern, Memphis, Miami, Southern Mississippi, Toledo, USC and Virginia Tech.
2016 Hot Seat Coaches:
Charlie Strong, Texas – Charlie’s Texas teams have gone only 11-14 and 9-9 in the Big 12. That’s not exactly acceptable at Texas, he needs a big turnaround this season
Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M – The Aggies went 11-2 in his first year with Manziel at QB, but since then they’ve gone 25-14 overall, which isn’t terrible, but the 11-13 mark in SEC play is concerning.
Negative Turnover Margin from the previous year – When teams turnover the ball more often they tend to lose the game more times than not and more importantly they fail to cover the spread. Teams in the offseason will focus more on maintaining possession/protecting the ball and in turn will have a more positive turnover margin than the last and I will look to those teams to cover more spreads in the upcoming year.
Top 10 Worst Turnover Margin Teams in 2015:
- Hawaii -23
- UCF -20
- Cincinnati -19
- Maryland -18
- ULM -16
- Miami Ohio -14
- Wake Forest, Eastern Michigan, Charlotte -13
- Rice, Nebraska, Colorado St. -12
- Wyoming, Iowa St., Army, UTEP -11
- SMU -10
With the worst turnover margin comes a teams stock that is low coming into the next season and tend to get bigger spreads to cover and I look towards moving on these teams earlier in the season.
Last seasons Best and worst teams against the Spread:
Why is this important? Because a team that cost you money ATS last season will commonly be viewed upon the next season as the same kind of team and vice versa if they won you money. These teams you should approach with caution this season
Best:
Toledo 9-2-1
Washington St 10-3-0
South Florida 9-3-1
Stanford, Bowling Green, Southern Mississippi 10-4-0
Oklahoma, Navy, Georgia Southern, Central Michigan, Ohio 9-4-0
Worst:
Central Florida 2-10
Charlotte 2-7-2
Hawaii 3-10
Georgia Tech, Missouri, Oregon st., Kansas, Kentucky, Kent st. 3-9
Auburn, Penn st. 4-9
Now you can see how teams that turn over the ball do not cover spreads. From a year ago the best ATS teams are not even in the top worst TO margin teams, but you have the top 3 worst ATS all in the top 7 worst TO margin teams. Negative Turnover margin gives you a key edge preseason in helping to determine teams that could be in for a turnaround year.
Only 2 teams of the 2014 teams made the list for the second straight year in 2015 (Michigan improving the most going from -16 to a +14 TO margin): Georgia St. -22, Eastern Michigan -18, Washington St. -17, Michigan -16, Vanderbilt -16, West Virginia -15, SMU -14, Connecticut -13, New Mexico St. -13, Texas Tech -13
Your Worst ATS 2014 teams:
AKRON, OREGON ST, SAN JOSE ST (3-9), FLORIDA ST (3-10), UCONN (2-10)
2015: Akron 8-5, Oregon st 3-9, San Jose st 8-5, Florida St. 8-5, UConn 5-8
Only 1 team did not improve from a year ago, Oregon St, but this year I believe they will improve from a ATS perspective with Gary Anderson in his second year with two recruiting classes under his belt and his system now in place.
Team Futures and Win Totals: Last season was a perfect 4-0 on my futures looking for much of the same this season
LSU: LSU “to win” the National Championship +1200 (Bet365) risking $200 to win $2400
This 2016 LSU team is loaded with talent and experience. They return 18 starters (9 offense, 9 defense) including preseason Heisman front runner RB Leonard Fournette. In football, battles are won in the trenches and LSU gets back some on both the offensive line (50 career total starts) and the defensive line (4 lineman) making this front one of the best in the nation. QB Harris has two returning WR’s to work with and will be looked upon to win games with his experience with the offense and not so much his arm with RB Fournette in the backfield.
LSU schedule: NO back-to-back road games, only 4 true road games (week 1 neutral game at Lambeau field), Advantage week 1 vs. Wisconsin as new DC Dave Aranda gets to dial up his plays against his former team, 2 divisional revenge games in Death Valley against Ole Miss (wk 8) and Alabama (actually quadruple revenge wk 10 off a bye week, this game I have circled to look to attack against Alabama here). I see this team poised for a big run with a favorable schedule and lots of talent on both sides of the ball. Alabama is the favorite to repeat and with them winning last year and because it’s Alabama they have huge public appeal and get overvalued in the market. LSU has a legitimate shot at the title this season and I am not letting this opportunity pass me by.
Alabama: Alabama does have some tough outs this season (LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee) and I am looking strong at an under 10 wins this season at Sportsbook.ag, but going to wait and see if I can grab a 10.5 before start of the season. I see a two loss team and really no value with the number sitting on 10 for me.
Arizona St.: Could have a solid start to the season in first 3 games: NO Arizona, TT, UTSA, but after come PAC 12 play this team could be in for a rough ride and a great fade if they start 3-0. 5 PAC 12 road games at USC, Colorado, Oregon, Washington and rival Arizona. They lost a QB, offensive line, defensive end and 5 assistant coaches, this team to me will not strong in the ATS market.
Penn St: Tread lightly with them to start, new OC Joe Moorhead brings Oregon style up tempo offense with a inexperienced mobile QB McSorely to compete with the big players in the BIG 10. Offensive line is experienced with 91 career starts and 6 return in the secondary. Good spots: wk 3 Temple, wk8 Ohio st, wk 10 Iowa. Bad spots: wk9 at Purdue (sandwich game).
Northwestern: this team had a standout year going 10-3 SU 7-5 ATS, but a bowl blowout loss to Tennessee. The Wildcats surpassed their expectations last season and will be hard to duplicate results with this brutal schedule. This year, I believe will be much different after this teams stock could be riding high after a chance to start 3-0. They have 5 true BIG 10 road games compared to 3 last year with 2 back-to-back. Missing this year, key WR, 2 DE (12 sacks combine)and a CB. With that being said I see a down year from the ATS perspective and have week four circled at home to Nebraska to hope to catch points with the Cornhuskers.
Oregon St.: As I said above from an against the spread perspective I believe Oregon St. will improve after back to back 3-9 ATS seasons. They really can’t get any worse on the field then they were last year going 0-9 in PAC-12 play and outyarded by 208 ypg. OSU lost 2 QB’s from transfers and now go to recruited QB from the Utah St., Darell Garretson. OSU with 2 QB’s transferred go from having 0 career FBS starts to experienced QB’s (Garretson 11 starts at Utah st. 2586 yp, 63% completion rate, 18-10 TD-INT). This team will be getting points a lot this season and from an ATS side I will be looking more at this team as the season goes on.
California: Going to be a tough year for Cali, lost QB Goff, top 6 WR, their OC and their top defensive player. This team has a very hard schedule and with a rebuilding year are going to be in for a long season. I look at their win total set a 4.5 and see a tough shot at reaching 5 wins. They play San Diego st and Texas out of conference which are no easy outs then finish the season playing 6 bowl teams Oregon, USC, Washington, Washington st, Stanford and UCLA. UNDER 4.5 wins -108 (pinnacle) Risking $432 to win $400
TCU: TCU coach Gary Patterson has developed a reputation for turning low ranked players into game changers. 4-star athlete Sewo Olonilua is very versatile and could fill a number of roles with ease, while 4-star WRs Isaiah Graham and Taj Williams can make a big impact straight away. The team also added some solid defensive linemen in the form of Ross Blacklock and Isaiah Chambers. Quarterback Trevone Boykin leaves big shoes to fill, but Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill and sophomore Foster Sawyer are talented options and should keep the offense performing at a high level. The only get 3 starters back on offense, but 8 on defense and this year flying under the radar after last years expectations were high. Flying under the radar is what I like and will be looking at them from an ATS standpoint this year. Best ATS spot: Oct 1 home to Oklahoma catching points Worst ATS spot: at Kansas Oct 8 a week after Oklahoma (letdown)
Iowa: The Hawkeyes were a goalline stand away from winning the Big Ten title and a playoff spot last season. 13 returning starters are back for 2016, another run at the top four isn’t out of the question. OC Greg Davis needs to find a few playmakers at receiver for quarterback C.J. Beathard, but the offensive line is one of the best in the Big Ten, and there’s a solid trio of backs leading the way on the ground. The defense gets back eight returning starters, including standout cornerback Desmond King and linebacker Josey Jewell. The biggest standout is their schedule again this season(2015 Hawkeyes avoided Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan.): No Ohio st and NO Michigan st. again this year They get Michigan at home. Nebraska, Northwestern and Iowa St. . On the road though is where I would look to attack against this team against improved an Improved Golden Gophers team Oct 8th. With a win total set at O/U 8.5 wins look for this team to come back down to earth after running through an easy schedule at 12-0 in 2015.
Nebraska: The Cornhuskers had bad luck on their side with a -12 turnover margin, which played a huge role in the team’s six losses by eight points or less (4 defeats on the final play of the game). Bad luck usually turns around into good fortune the next season, so Nebraska could pick up a couple of wins just by showing some improvement in turnover margin. The offense returns six starters, including quarterback Tommy Armstrong and one of the Big Ten’s top receiving groups. Don’t want anything to do with the win total set at O/U 8.5 but do expect a big turnaround from this team in 2016.
Most Overhyped CFB teams preseason to be careful with:
Tennessee: Every year we go into a new season believing it’s the season that Tennessee finally puts it all together and wins the SEC East and it’s no different in 2016. The Vols won five SEC games last season. Four of those wins came against Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri and Vanderbilt. Four SEC teams that managed to go a combined 6-26 in conference play last season. Tough home games with Gators and Bama and have roadies at Texas A&M and Georgia back to back and South Carolina. This SEC is tough and no team is an easy out. Until this team can take the next step I see huge value in playing this win total set at O/U 10 wins. Call me crazy, but I do not see an 11 win team here. UNDER 10 wins -155 (pinnacle) risking $155 to win $100
Washington st: The Cougars are coming off their best season under Mike Leach , as they went 9-4 last year, including a 6-3 record in conference play, and finished the season with a win over Miami in the Sun Bowl. Washington states six victories in conference play came by an average margin of 12.2 points, but that number is somewhat skewed a bit by a 24 point win over a 4-9 Colorado Buffaloes and a 21-point win over 2-10 Oregon State Beavers. Three of those wins were SU underdog wins of 7+ points, at Oregon, at Arizona and at UCLA. The Cougars went 10-2 against the spread last season and will carry a much bigger respect factor to the oddsmakers this season with QB Luke Falk and receiver Gabe Marks returning to provide the offense. I’m just not convinced that the Cougars will be able to win nine games again with a schedule that includes road trips to Boise State, Stanford and Arizona St (Washington st travels to Oregon St and Colorado and both those teams could be looking for revenge from last years blowouts). This teams win total is at O/U 7.5. I see the value lying with more of an overvalued team to start the season and inflated lines. A 10-2 ATS team from a year ago will not go 10-2 again and will look to attack against this team as the season rolls along
Michigan: Defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin is now the head coach at Maryland and QB Jake Rudock is gone. While Michigan added Boston College DC Don Brown, who put together 2015’s top defense with the Eagles, this still makes for a big transition heading into 2016. Give props to Jim from taking a 5-7 team to a 10-3 team with a bowl win over Florida but can he take them to the next step, a college football playoff? Only three teams stand in the way to me and all road games in very tough environments – Michigan st (revenge for Michigan after last years crazy loss on a blocked punt), Iowa and Ohio St.. I want nothing to do with the win total set at O/U 9.5
Washington:
Louisville:
Teams to upset one or two games and attack with this 2016 College season:
Write-ups to follow, but these are a few teams I will be looking to play with this up coming season. These are your “un-sexy” teams, but can pad your pocket come college betting season. Often over looked, undervalued, least bet on and these teams will not be on any prime time networks any time soon. All these teams have made significant improvements and return many starters from a season ago and fit right into what I look for preseason in terms of an ATS beast.
Oregon St.,Rice, Army, UCF, Old Dominion, Vandy, Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Kansas, Missouri and Cincy.
Teams ATS looking down in 2016:
Iowa, Northwestern, Navy, Temple, Stanford and Bowling Green.
Just a heads up to be careful betting big juicy public favorites from week to week as these teams can burn your bankroll. There are spots to attack with these teams and doing your homework can put you in those right spots. If not you could have your money in direct line with a public bloodbath.
For now this is what I have moved on preseason, if I move on anything else before the season starts I will be posting here with my thoughts and of course it will be tweeted out @d_rocksports
For a profitable season, it’s a must to DO YOUR HOMEWORK, if you put in the time, you will see results and avoid my 10 mistakes made by amateur gamblers then you will be on the winning side at the end of the season, GOOD LUCK to everyone this college football betting season,
Derek
@d_rocksports
drocksportsbetting@gmail.com
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