It’s here, college football season is just around the corner and I couldn’t be more excited!  In this college football season preview I will be looking at it from a bettors perspective and not just previewing each conference and team.  There are a lot of schools in college football and I do my homework and study the scheduling to find the best situations to PLAY ON and PLAY AGAINST as the season rolls on.  In college the turnover of players is high as players get drafted, graduate and transfer schools.  Coaching changes have happened and I compile all this information over the summer and find the best spots and numbers to provide you with my 2015 college football betting preview.

For the average bettor it can be overwhelming to go through and research every team and league before and during the college football season.  My advice, and I did this when I was first starting out, was to concentrate my time on one conference.  Know every team, player and coaching staff for that conference and study only the schedules and history of that one conference.  Research and read the local papers of these schools, check out their social media pages, get to know every detail there is to find information that might not be factored in the line to find you that edge.  A win is a win doesn’t matter from what conference and if you concentrate on just one conference chances are you will benefit better during the season.  To stat collecting data I use cfbstats.com to gather information from the previous year.

Profitable Betting situations to look out for this year:

Also up here is my list of CFB Profitable Theory’s that I use every week

New to the team:  Works like this: look over the games and circle any of the teams that have introduced a new head coach to the team in the offseason (especially if the team has brought in a high profile coach for a high profile team, hint hint Michigan).  Second, put a double circle if that team has introduced a new quarterback to the team as well.  Third, look to PLAY AGAINST this team on their first true road game of the season.  It’s a lot to take in for a new coach and new QB on the road in hostile environments with brand new offense gameplans to follow and the inexperience of the two working together.  For a young kid that’s a hard situation for anybody to be in.  Simply put, this situation has been extremely profitable over the years to me and just passing along to my loyal readers.

Coaching changes for the 2015 season to keep a eye on:

Buffalo – Out: Jeff Quinn In: Lance Leipoid (109-6 record!!)

Wisconsin – Out: Gary Anderson In: Paul Chryst (from Pitt.)

Troy – Out: Larry Blakeney In: Neal Brown

Tulsa – Out: Bill Blankenship In: Phil Montgomery

UNLV – Out: Bobby Hauck In: Tony Sanchez

Central Michigan – Out: Dan Enos In: John Bonamego

Florida – Out: Will Muschamp In: Jim McElwain (from Colorado St.)

Colorado St. – Out: Jim McElwain In: Mike Bobo

Nebraska – Out: Bo Pelini In: Mike Riley (from Oregon St.)

Pittsburgh – Out: Paul Chryst In: Pat Narduzzi

Oregon St. – Out: Mike Riley In: Gary Anderson (from Wisconsin)

SMU – Out: June Jones In: Chad Morris (ran Clemson Offense)

Michigan – Out: Brady Hoke In: Jim Harbaugh (from NFL 49ers)

Houston – Out: Tony Levine In: Tom Herman

Kansas – Out: Charlie Weiss In: David Beaty

Negative Turnover Margin from the previous year – When teams turnover the ball more often they tend to lose the game more times than not and more importantly they fail to cover the spread.  Teams in the offseason will focus more on maintaining possession/protecting the ball and in turn will have a more positive turnover margin than the last and I will look to those teams to cover more spreads in the upcoming year.

Top 10 Worst Turnover Margin Teams in 2014:

1. Georgia St. -22

2. Eastern Michigan -18

3. Washington St. -17

4. Michigan -16

5. Vanderbilt -16

6. West Virgina -15

7. SMU -14

8. Connecticut -13

9. New Mexico St. -13

10. Texas Tech -13

Last year’s Best and Worst against the spread teams:

Best: TCU (10-2), WESTERN MICH. (10-2), LA-TECH (10-3), ARKANSAS, UTEP, TEXAS ST. (9-3)

Worst: AKRON, OREGON ST, SAN JOSE ST (3-9), FLORIDA ST (3-10), UCONN (2-10)

Over the past 6 seasons these are the schools with the best against the spread record:

Ohio St. 62.8% (49-29)

K-State 62.7% (47-28)

Stanford 62.0% (49-30)

UCF 61.5% (48-30)

Oklahoma St. 61.0% (47-30)

Houston 60.5% (46-30)

Utah St. 60.5% (46-30)

Oregon 60.0% (48-32)

These are the best UNDER teams the past 6 seasons:

E. Michigan    26-44  37.1%

Akron              27-44  38.0%

Kansas           27-43  38.6%

Army               29-44  39.7%

Idaho              28-42  40.0%

N.Mexico St   30-41  41.1%

S. Florida       30-42  41.7%

Cal                  31-43  41.9%

S. Miss           31-43   41.9%

These are the best OVER teams the past 6 seasons:

Ohio St.   49-29  62.8%

K-State    47-28  62.7%

Stanford  49-30  62.0%

UCF         48-30  61.5%

Oklahoma St.  47-30   61.0%

Houston  45-30   60.5%

Utah St.   46-30   60.5%

Oregon    48-32   60.0%

Worst Coaches ATS (min 3 years)

Doug Martin 40.4%

Joey Jones 42.1%

Dana Holgorsen 43.1%

Ron Turner 44.2%

Rich Rodriguez 44.3%

Best Coaches ATS (min 3 years)

Freeze 68%

D. Shaw 62.9%

U.Meyer 61.6%

Malzahan 61.5%

McElwain 60.7%

Team Futures and Win Totals:

Oklahoma – This team was talked very highly of at the start of last season ranked #4 at the start of the season and ended the season unranked.  I see this team rebounding after a dismal season, but will be grading them as the season rolls on.  Second week they play at Tennessee and want to see how they come out and play against an out of conference game against a tough opponent on the road.  If the Sooners can get by that game then I can see them rolling along until the final three weeks at Baylor, home to TCU and back on the road to play rival Oklahoma St.  Those are a tough final three weeks.  They are deep at QB with all three QB’s on the roster having started and won a game for the Sooners, they get BIG 12 leading rusher Sanaje Perine back for his second season and have 13 starters returning (7 off, 6 D).  This is one of my sleeper teams this season, they have a lot of talent all around the ball this year OL is one of the best, Experienced QB, great running attack which can set up play action, a smothering defense and a new OC Lincoln Riley from East Carolina who’s sure to bring the “air raid”.  Look for this team to surprise in 2015.

North Texas – Last year this team won only 4 games after a 8 win season the previous year (did lose all their starters).  I look at their win total set at 4.5 and have to think hmm, how is this team winning 5 games this season?  0-6 SU and ATS on the road last season and this year play 7 road games.  They have by far the toughest schedule in the CUSA, having to play Marshall, WKU and Middle Tenn.  They also draw out of conference games on the road against Iowa, Tennessee and Louisiana Tech.  The Mean Green are 16-7 SU at home over the past five seasons but only play five home games all season and one is against a tough opponent in WKU.  They do go from 9 returning starters from last season to 12, but just don’t see how they can surpass 4 wins this season with this schedule.

Appalachian St. – You can’t forget about small schools and I certainly don’t.  They are not the most publicly bet games on the board, but do offer the same as a popular bet, a win.  Do not count out this school this season.  Last year they started out 1-5 SU and ATS, but finished 6-0 SU (3 of those as underdogs) and 4-2 ATS.  Their defense was stout to finish the season allowing just 268 yards ypg and 19.8 ppg.  They return 20 out of a possible 22 starters from last season and that is a huge confidence booster to this team.  This season they play only 4 teams with winning records from 2014 and this season three of those Sun Belt conference games at home versus 3 of 4 of those winning teams from last season (GA southern, Arkansas St. and ULL).  Huge advantage for this team as the last ten years they have complied a 60-14 record at home.  Look for this team to maybe break 9 win this season and take the Sun Belt Conference.

Virgina Tech – not going to be an easy start to the season for the Hokies who have to face off versus the National Champion Buckeyes first game and who will be looking to avenge their last season’s lost versus them.  Finishing 7-6 last season and winning their bowl game last season this team has 16 returning starters (2nd most in the ACC), they avoid playing Florida St., Clemson and Louisville out of the Atlantic.  Injuries at RB last year hurt them, their defense has always been solid, their offense needs to step it up and now with a veteran QB this year in Micheal Brewer, things could be different (2692 YP, 59.4% completions, 18/15 TD/INT).  Their win total is at 8 @ pinnacle and 7.5  @ sportsbook.  Until they can prove to win more than 9 like back in the 2010, 2011 seasons this makes them an UNDER bet in my books.  They face some tough D’s in Ohio St, Pitt, Miami, Duke, BC and Virginia.  These games could go either way and Micheal Brewer proves he can throw the ball to his own team and improve on that TD to INT ratio, this team won’t win 9 games.  UNDER 8 +115 (pinnacle)

Akron – I look to the Zips to be one of the most improved teams.  Since head coach Tommy Bowden has come in two seasons ago he has changed this team in a big way.  The Zips have 13 senior starters back this season, picked up 10 wins the past two seasons and their defense has gone from 39 allowed ppg to 23 allowed ppg.  This team has solid transfers that have come to this team and they could be a sneaky team to watch for this season.

Michigan – Jim Harbaugh comes in to Michigan and is treated like a god there so far.  This guy is everywhere on the campus, tv, every Michigan teamed game, throwing out first pitches.  They have rolled out the red carpet for this guy.  I look for the Harbaugh impact to take effect after a few weeks into the season once every player starts to gel with the new gameplan and the Harbaugh work ethic.  With 15 returning starters and Michigan brings in a second year QB from Iowa Jake Rudock who has 25 career starts (4819 yards passing, 60.3% comp 34/18 TD/INT) this team should be poised for an upwards season.  With a -16 turnover ratio from a season ago and with 7 defensive starters back I look for Michigan to look to focus on protecting the ball more and making smarter football decisions on offense.  Michigan gets rivals Ohio st. and Michigan st at home witch is nice but Michigan st is off their homecoming game but I look to the end of the schedule their last game against Ohio St. to be a potential upset.  Game of the Year line has Ohio st as -14 favorites and I look to that game as one I have circled on my calender as a potential upset.  Michigan will be a more improved team this year with the worth of experience at all the coaching positions and more experienced position team I will be looking to PLAY ON this team later on in the year.

Auburn – Gus Malzahn enters his third year with Auburn on the plains with a new DC in Muschamp and a new QB in Jeremy Johnson with Nick Marshall gone.  Auburn the last two seasons has faced the toughest schedule, but this season is softer.  They play the likes of Louisville, Jax.State, Idaho and SJ.State.  With only 12 starters returning this season DC Muschamp gets to inherit 8 of those 12 on defense to make this unit a top tier D once again.  I like what I’ve seen from QB Johnson in limited action so far.  I know Gus only has 4 starters back on offense but I don’t worry about a Malzahn offense so much.  On the road in SEC play this season they’re at Kentucky, Texas A&M, Arkansas and LSU.  Home games vs Miss.State, Ole Miss on Halloween and of course Georgia and Alabama.  This team will need to be able to put up points against a very tough SEC to keep their defense off the field this season.  ATS watches this season play on against LSU sept 19, fade them the week after at home to Miss St. and to play on them at Texas A&M Nov 11.

TCU – One of the biggest surprise teams from a season ago will be high on my “fade-dar” this season especially early on in September.  There will be a high price to pay for betting with this team early on as the oddsmakers will have this team’s number inflated.  Last year going 10-2 ATS and the public falling in love with this team, I believe the love will still be there at the start of the season and start to fade as the season goes on.  They have 77% of letter-man returning from a season ago including star and Heisman trophy favorite Trevone Boykin.  TCU returns 10 starters on offense, but their defense only returns 5 starters.  They had a +18 turnover differential last year and I do not see them achieving the same results from a season ago.  This team overachieved in my opinion and will be over hyped early on.  They open on the road vs. Minnesota -14 or 14.5 depending on what book and I believe that the Golden Gophers do surprise here and cover that spread.

Michigan St. -Last year they went 8-4 ATS, giving 13 pts or more seven times, but do lose their DC to Pitt. Their offense was potent averaging 43 ppg and they have Conner Cook back for his final season.  They get 14 starters back with 7 on D and will need that veteran leadeship with the schedule they have.  I think it’s a rough schedule they play 3 tough Big 10 road games at Michigan, Nebraska and Ohio St.  They have a +19 turnover margin from a season ago which is hard to duplicate, but this team does have a potential first round draft pick in Cook backing them with a solid OL (one of the best in the country) which helps the running game and in turn running off clock.  Michigan st. only lost 17 lettermen with 51 returning.  They have a deep team and can be playoff contenders.  Point spread look outs for the year are Oct. 10 at Rutgers, Michigan is on deck and Rutgers is off a bye, Sept 19 vs. Air Force game after Oregon and Nov 14 against Maryland with a potential look a head spot with Ohio St the next week and Penn st the week after Ohio st.

Baylor – 18 of 22 starters are back for Art Briles this season.  They have a new QB in Seth Russell, but Baylor breeds QB’s out there, they go from RG3 to Florence to Petty now to Russell.  Defensive line is one of the best they return 9 defensive starters and only lost 18 lettermen.  The only problem with their schedule is the final five weeks they have Kansas st on the road (both after a bye), Oklahoma at home (Oklahoma could have revenge on their mind got blown out at home 48-14), then Oklahoma St. at home (look a head to TCU) and the big game against TCU on the road the day after Thanksgiving (TCU will look for revenge) and finally Texas (potential letdown after the prime time game).  That’s a very tough stretch and it will tell if this team is a National Title contender or not.  They have recently had some off the field issues as well with DE Sam Ukwuachu was sentenced to 10 years of felony probation and placed in the county jail for 180 days.  He will also have to serve 400 hours of community service.  Ukwuachu was facing up to 20 years in prison.  Ukwuachu transferred from Boise State to Baylor in 2013 after being dismissed from the Broncos program.  At Boise State, he was accused of being abusive to his girlfriend but was officially dismissed for an unspecified violation of team rules.  After the sentencing Boise St. coach Chris Petersen, said he told Art Briles about Sam’s violent past and warned him, so we will wait and see how this plays out this season as off field issues could be a concern for this team moving forward.

Marshall – Coming off a big bowl win last season and losing some key position players QB Rakeem Cato is gone, WR Tommy Shuler gone, all conference center Chris Japerse gone, Marshalls top 3 DL and it’s top four LB’s all gone.  These are all huge losses for this team I don’t care how well you recruit in the offseason these are key positions that take time to mold again into a new system.  Marshall has the easiest schedule of all FBS schools this season only facing one CUSA team that had a winning record in conference play, but I do see them slipping up more than once and will look to take advantage of playing against them ATS early on as a new team comes together.  The win total is set at 10 and I played this small UNDER 10 wins +109 (pinnacle)

Ohio St. – The National Championship winning team and doing so as an underdog in the playoff and championship game.  Nothing better than a perfect set up to fade all season long.  This team is high on my fade list as every game they could and probably will be a double digit favorite.  Their season win total is set at 11.5 and their strength of schedule is very weak.  However, one loss this season and an under bet will be cashed.  I do believe this happens this season as they do start out in a very hostile place to play at Virgina Tech, but do have redemption from last year on their mind, so don’t see their loss in that game.  The rest of their schedule until their final two games is played against manageable teams, but do see a loss in either the Michigan st home game or the next week Nov 28th on the road in Michigan.  They could lose either one of those games as Michigan St. will be looking for payback from last years title game and Michigan, big rivalry game in Michigan off a title game rematch, will be an improved threat in the Big 10 I believe this season.  QB controversy who’s going to start? How many reps will each QB get?  Questions a coach hates hearing every day and could be a distraction.  Four players suspended for week 1 including reigning Big 10 Defensive player of the year and potential top 5 NFL draft pick Joey Bosa.  In the past 20 years, there have been three teams that have won back-to-back national championships, Nebraska in 1994-95, Southern California in 2003-04, and Alabama in 2011-12.  It’s a feat very hard to accomplish and now with the 4 team playoff I believe it will be even harder to do.  Ohio St. has a big target on their back and I will be looking to cash in on this overvalued favorite with inflated numbers all season long just like last years reigning champs, Florida St. (3-10 ATS last year).  Ohio St. UNDER 11.5 wins +100 (sportsbook)

Oregon – This  could be my favorite fade this season.  Coming off a National Championship loss and having to replace a guy in Mariota as the QB hardly turned over the ball (only 4 int last season) and the Oregon Ducks had the highest positive turnover margin last season at +23.  I am not a huge fan of Mark Helfrich either and his coaching decisions, he was gifted a great team and it will be interesting to see how he will adjust his team this year with the lose of Mariota.  Starting with replacing a QB into a new system, I don’t care how highly touted Vernon Adams is, is not easy.  Coming in from Eastern Washington Vernon Adams had to pass a class to become eligible and he did so he will be able to play for Oregon this season.  Adams threw for 10438 yards with a 110/31 TD/int ratio in 3 years at EW, but this is the PAC 12 and this year could be the year with the highest level of competitiveness I’ve seen in a while.  New system takes time to learn and with a tough schedule games on the road at Michigan St., Arizona St. and Standford another 10 + win season looks out of reach to me.  Oregon only has 12 starters returning from last season with 23 lettermen lost from a year ago.  Oregon suffered a big lose at running back as the former five-star recruit, Thomas Tyner injured his shoulder returning a kickoff last season against Washington and will require season ending surgery to repair it.  Tyner rushed for five touchdowns on 573 yards last season out of the backfield.  With Tyner now down for the season, more pressure is placed on Royce Freeman to repeat his freshman numbers (1,365 yards, 18 touchdowns).  I will be interested to see how they cope with the lose as the season rolls on.  This team will not repeat the numbers from a season ago, when you don’t turnover the ball you give your team a chance to win games and with the lose of Mariota and a hungry PAC 12 conference looking to take a run at Oregon this year, it points to a downward season for me.  They will be overvalued early and I will be looking to grab points against this team early in the season.  I do not see them winning 10 games this year, my big future play is Oregon UNDER 9.5 wins -106 (pinnacle)

Arizona St. – Lots of positives here to look at for Arizona st.  They only lost 14 lettermen, the fewest in the conference, and have 16 returning starters (7 off, 9 D).  They have a schedule that benefits them with only 4 PAC 12 road games (2 are vs. Washington st. and California) and they don’t have to play Stanford.  I like what I have seen from QB Bercovici and now has experience in big time games to put up big numbers this season.  The only hard part of their schedule is facing USC in week 4 then UCLA the next week, but do get UCS at home.  After that they get 12 days to prep for Oregon at home after a road game at Utah.   They also get Arizona at home too.   I want to see how they come out against Texas A&M week 1, but wouldn’t be shocked if they won 9 + games this season.  I’m seeing two different win totals out there 8.5 at pinnacle juiced to the under and 7.5 juiced to the over at sportsbook.  There is a middle there at 8 between the two books, but it is a pass of the win totals for me and I will look to situational play on this team as the season goes on.

Quick Bits:

Toledo – Has zero starters returning on the offensive line, but every other position is loaded

Boise St. – has a chance to run the table this season, like Marshall last season, more than likely will make it to the title game.

Alabama – Once again, this team has the highest ranking draft class and did see a big loss in players with only 10 starters returning.  Saban has his system in place and their defensive unit is top notch, but with only 3 starters back on offense I look for them to get back to the basics early, the good ol’ ground and pound game.  Will be title contenders again

USC – Too over hyped?  For good reason this team will be good.  7 home games this year (5 of them against the PAC 12).  14 returning starters including Heisman candidate QB Cody Kessler, who turned down the NFL to return.  Only lost 17 lettermen and are by far National Title contenders

Penn St. – With now an experienced OL can they protect QB Hackenberg?

Tennesse – youngest team last year, will be much more improved from last season with 18 starters returning (most in SEC).  Won their last 3 of 4 games in 2014 and see them pulling off an upset or two this season.

Florida St – one of the worst ATS teams last season, see improvement on a ATS level as they were over hyped from winning the championship in 2013.  Only 11 starters returning and have QB transfer from Notre Dame in Golson.

UCLA – Have the most starters back in the conference at 18, but do lose their QB Hundley.  Still a strong team around, they avoid Oregon this year which helps but do have back to back road games in the last two weeks at Utah then USC.

Western Kentucky – offense is scary good, will be some crazy totals in their games this season

Final 4 Prediction:

TCU

USC

Michigan St.

Alabama

National Champion:

USC

For a profitable season, it’s a must to DO YOUR HOMEWORK, if you put in the time, you will see results and if you follow my profitable college football betting situations and avoid my 10 mistakes made by amateur gamblers then you will be on the winning side at the end of the season, GOOD LUCK to everyone this college football betting season,

Derek

drocksportsbetting@gmail.com

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