For those who are interested in my previous seasons of football, here are my results.  I have kept my results since September 2015 documented at pickmonitor.com and will continue to keep them documented there as it’s free and a reputable monitoring website, unlike many others.

Previous NFL & CFB seasons:

NFL:

2013:  60-49 (55.04%) +15.78 units

2014:  61-41 (59.8%) +48.59 units

2015:  44-44 (50%) +16.86 units

CFB:

2013:  61-51 (54.4) +13.55 units

2014:  55-55 (50%) +4.24 units

2015:  64-54 (54.2%) +28.18 units

CFB:

Kickoff 7pm EDT

GM 145 Ball St. +5.5 -110 (SB) risking $440 to win $400

GM 145 Ball St. ml +185 (SB) risking $200 to win $370

Here’s a spot where we’re getting a full point better at a public book.  Why? Because of overreaction to a coaching change viewed in the market as a negative one for Ball St.  Enter Mike Neu, a former Ball State quarterback that was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 1993.  He was also the quarterbacks coach for the New Orleans Saints of the NFL.  The Ball State job is his first as a head coach and he has plenty of weapons to work with.  They return their starting QB 6-5 soph Riley Neal, unlike Georgia st having to start an inexperienced QB that has been sitting on the bench for two years.  Emiere Scaife did play eight plays in total over the past two years and attempted eight passes………he completed none.  Combine Lembo’s departure with the Cardinals awful season a year ago (losers of eight of their past nine games 3-9 SU and 4-7 ATS overall) and the result is a great buy low opportunity.  We saw this exact same line movement from last night with Vanderbilt opened at -1 and went to -5 at gametime and ended up losing SU.  Analyzing line movement is key to picking winners and with the value erased from Georgia st. I have done my research and looked into this game farther and found my edge with Ball St..

Further Analysis of tonight’s CFB games:

Two games the value has been blasted away tonight are Army and Kansas st.  I did at first like both those teams tonight with where their number was earlier, but with this significant shift in the number you do not want to waste time with those two teams at the current number.  The public is on Temple and Stanford, but with this kind of shift in line I tend to stay away from that type of game.  The Standford and Temple game both remind me of last nights line shifts between Rice and Western Kentucky as early action was on Rice then 2 hours before kick we saw a 2.5-3 point swing on Western Kentucky.  This could happen tonight with the snot pounded out of the dogs Army and Kansas St. and now value with the favorite, but I don’t want anything to do with siding with that kind of public fav.  I do not see Standford staying at -12.5 before kick more towards a two TD fav.  There is a full point difference with Army between public and sharp books +14.5 at pinnacle and +15.5 at Sportsbook, but the number at Sportsbook is not a key number so it’s a pass game.

Two public dogs I would stay away from tonight are Colorado st. and Toledo.

Good luck to all tonight!!

Derek

@d_rocksports

drocksportsbetting@gmail.com