Talking myself into that Philadelphia ML bet at +200 was a good thing for our bankrolls last night as they were never in danger of not covering the +1.5 and left the Consol Enegy Center with yet another win. It felt good to get my NHL free picks record back to 50% for the year and because of my underdog strategy I’m actually up money with that 2-2 record. Tonight there are eight NHL games on tap, along with two college football contests and the Thursday nighter in the NFL. I have already sent out my premium plays to subscribers (4; three in NHL, one in CFB), so let’s get to the two plays that just missed out on making that card.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 47-43 (+$2817)

MLB Playoffs : 4-2 (+$670)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 15-15 ATS (-$307) 

NFL YTD: 7-11 ATS (-$1224)

NHL YTD: 2-2 (+$202)

NFL Free Play

San Diego Chargers +9.5 (-107) $214 to win $200

If I could have got +10 without buying the extra half-point I would have made this my top free play of the day as the Chargers past success here in Denver in undeniable. Overall the Chargers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games with the Broncos and that includes a 7-0 ATS mark in their last seven here in Denver. Philip Rivers has the know-how and weaponry to match Peyton Manning score for score should the game turn into a shootout, but with Chargers DC John Pagano calling the shots I doubt we see that happen.

Pagano has had plenty of success against Manning in the past as a DC at various spots, including an outright win here in Denver last season. Although the Chargers lost here in the playoffs, they managed to cover the spread (+7.5) as they lost by a TD and watched the Broncos move on. With this game being a battle for 1st place in the division I’m expecting another game that’s decided by a TD or less and given the fact that Denver is 3-14 ATS as division home favorites of less than 17 points, I have no problem grabbing all of these points with a very good Chargers team tonight.

College Football Free Plays

Connecticut/East Carolina Under 54.5 (-110) $220 to win $200

Can’t ignore the line move here as many are betting the high side of this total in what should be an easy win for the Pirates (-27.5). But even if it is an easy win for East Carolina, I can’t trust them to put up 55 points themselves against a UConn team that has a decent defense and horrific offense. This game has a 34-10 type score written all over it and that still gives us a bit of leeway with this ‘under’ selection.

Virginia Tech +2.5 (-108) $324 to win $300

Don’t really get all the love for Miami in this spot tonight as they’ve been a brutal team away from home this year and that’s in part because of their freshman QB under center. Brad Kaaya lit up the Bearcats in his last start and RB Duke Johnson will play in this game tonight (he missed the Virginia Tech game a year ago), but Miami has lost all three games on the road by double digits this season and I would not be surprised to see them make it four in a row tonight.