I was able to get there with my top play on North Carolina yesterday as it was a sloppy effort all around from the Irish. I couldn’t get there with East Carolina as a slow start doomed the Pirates, but I’ll take a 1-1 day with the higher play winning any day of the week. It’s on to the NFL today and I’ve got one free play for everyone but you might have to plug your nose when you make the bet.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

Free Play Records

MLB Pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 47-43 (+$2817)

MLB Playoffs : 4-1 (+$970)

CFL YTD: 6-8 (-$266)

NCAAF YTD: 12-12 ATS (+$47)

NFL YTD: 7-9 ATS (-$528)

NHL YTD: 0-0 

NFL Free Play

New York Jets +10  (-123) $369 to win $300

Needless to say there hasn’t been much to like about the Jets this year as their only win has come over the winless Oakland Raiders. They are a mess at QB with the Geno Smith/Mike Vick dilemma and they just were shutout in San Diego last week. Backing the Jets is not going to be a popular option this week against the high-powered Broncos with Peyton Manning at the helm, but I’ve got to take the points here.

For one, this is a potential look-ahead spot for the Broncos as they’ve got two home games with the 49ers and Chargers on deck and Denver’s got to feel like those two teams are a much bigger threat to them than the 1-4 SU Jets. Like many bettors will feel, Denver’s got to think they merely have to show up to MetLife Stadium this week and they’ll leave with a win three hours later, but winning and winning by double digits are two entirely different things.

When you dig deeper into this game and you see that the Broncos are on an 0-4 ATS run vs. AFC East teams and 1-10 ATS as favorites of six or more when playing a sub-.500 AFC team before Game 13, laying those points on the road becomes a lot tougher.

Searching further still you’ll find that Denver is 1-7 ATS as road favorites in Games 5-8 when coming off a double-digit ATS win and 2-11 ATS as favorites of any number off a double-digit win and playing an opponent off a double-digit loss in that same stretch of games. With those kind of numbers do you really want to be laying this heavy chalk on the road?

I definitely do not especially considering the Jets are 7-1 ATS the last eight times they’ve been underdogs after scoring less than 10 and are 7-0 ATS at home after a double-digit loss and playing a non-division AFC team. The Jets might look like a team that’s better suited for the lower ranks of college football right now, but these guys are still professionals and they’ll find a way to keep it a one-score game with Denver this week.