I took an extended break over the weekend to dive into football research for the NFL and college. We’ve got a lot of great things lined up for the football season for you here at D Rock Sports so stay tuned in the coming weeks for all the great content. It’s back to MLB tonight with 10 games on tonight’s board and there are a few games that I really love tonight.

All lines taken from Pinnacle Sports with bet amounts ‘to win’ on favorites and flat on underdogs

Play of the Day in Bold

MLB pre All Star Break: 101-107-13 (+$691)

MLB post All Star Break: 19-17 (+$1583)

CFL YTD: 5-6 (+$34)

MLB plays

Oakland/KC Over 7 (-115) $230 to win $200

The Royals are the hottest team in baseball right now with seven straight wins under their belt and a 15-3 SU run in their last 18 overall. During this seven-game run they haven’t scored less than four runs in any contest as they are finally starting to give their starting pitchers some support. Oakland’s Sonny Gray has been great all year but he’s got roughed up by Tampa last time out and he looks like he’s just trying to grind through the dog days of summer here. KC got a lot of momentum rolling now and I like their chances to put up 4+ again tonight.

Oakland will do their fair share of scoring as well as they are 4-0 O/U in their last four on the road and they are also 4-0 O/U in their last four as a road favorite. They’ve got a 5-1-2 O/U run going on the road when the total is between 7 and 8.5 and with tonight’s number on the lower end of that spectrum I see tremendous value in the high side of this total tonight.

Houston ML (+103) $200 to win $206

I don’t need to go into my love/hate relationship with the Astros, but they are a team I feel like I’ve had a good handle on all season. When they aren’t getting much love (especially as a home dog) I have no problem jumping on board, and after a few wins and bettors starting to come on their bandwagon I have no problem jumping off and waiting for another great opportunity to back them. That’s the case tonight as the Astros host Minnesota and getting only 25% of the action.

Minnesota isn’t a good team by any means and although Houston has the struggling Brad Peacock on the hill tonight, he should get plenty of help from his teammates. Houston is 4-1 SU in their last five as a home underdog and they’ve got a 10-4 SU run going against AL Central teams. But it’s all about being in the minority for Astros games in my opinion and tonight I’m siding with the home dog.

Toronto ML (+193) $300 to win $579

Toronto played an epic 19-inning game with the Tigers last night and are now in Seattle to face King Felix and the M’s. The prevailing thought is that the Jays are absolutely gassed after that extra inning affair yesterday, had to make the long flight out west and will have nothing left in the tank for this game against the King. Everyone is jumping on board in waves to back Seattle as a huge home favorite based on this logic and I can easily see this line climbing back to the +200 mark for Toronto before the first pitch. However, let me draw up a scenario here to point out some flaws/counter arguments to the Jays being gassed in this spot after that big win.

For one, being on the winning side of that 19-inning game feels a lot better than losing it (sorry Detroit), especially for a team like Toronto who needs every win they can get. That long five-hour flight to the pacific northwest was made much more enjoyable because of the W and the Jays always have tremendous support in Seattle from their fans in British Columbia. They know that everyone is counting them out tonight because of the fatigue, jet lag and King Felix on the hill, but Toronto will be ready to right the adrenaline from yesterday’s victory to another win tonight. That flight is long, but they gain three hours going to the pacific time zone and the game is a 10 pm body clock start for Toronto. That’s not as quick of a turnaround as many believe it is, so fatigue might not even come into play tonight.

Finally, for whatever reason, King Felix does not particularly like facing the Jays. Since 2006, Hernandez has started 10 games against Toronto and the Mariners have finished with a 4-6 SU mark.  His three home starts during that time have resulted in Toronto scoring 7, 7, and 11 runs as Hernandez didn’t go more than six innings in those starts. It’s almost a year to the day (Aug 6th) that Hernandez last faced Toronto here and the Jays tagged him for six runs in five innings of work off of nine hits, so Toronto isn’t a dead dog in this spot as many think. Hernandez also has losses of 8-0 and 8-3 against the Jays in his career so he’s not always his dominant self against this team. At nearly +200 the Jays are definitely undervalued tonight because of the travel/extra inning scenario and that’s why I’m jumping all over them tonight.